Trusting gut instincts to decide whether a military action is proportional opens a leader to psychological traps

Why did U.S. President Donald Trump recently call off a retaliatory strike against Iran?

The answer was proportionality: Trump said the American response to Iran’s downing of an American drone should be on a similar scale.

That decision, Trump said, came from his “gut.”

Donald J. Trump

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Replying to @realDonaldTrump

….On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not….

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

….proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!

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Because the drone was unmanned, Trump said it would be disproportionate for a U.S. strike to result in approximately 150 Iranian deaths, the estimated number of likely casualties.

View the complete July X article by Paul Slovic, Professor of Psychology at the University of Oregon, and Amichai Cohen, Associate Professor of International Law at Ono Academic College on the Conversation website here.