The following article by James Hohmann with Breanne Deppisch and Joanie Greve was posted on the Washington Post website August 25, 2017:
THE BIG IDEA: Donald Trump is doing more damage to the public image of congressional Republican leaders than any Democratic operative could in their wildest dreams.
The president’s threat to shut down the federal government if Congress does not pony up $1.6 billion for a border wall could further corrode his relationship with Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan. It might also cause additional damage to the Senate majority leader and House speaker’s standing with the Republican base.
By creating a new artificial crisis and making a demand that’s unlikely to be met, Trump is setting up his supporters to be disappointed once again. But he’s banking that Republicans on Capitol Hill will get blamed far more than him if the gambit fails.
Trump is probably right about this. Tony Fabrizio, who was the president’s pollster during the 2016 campaign, has just conducted a survey of GOP and GOP-leaning voters that found the congressional wing of the party has shouldered more blame than Trump for everything that’s gone wrong the past few months.
Everyone’s image has taken a hit. Fabrizio reports that Trump’s favorability rating has slipped from 78 percent among Republicans in June to 71 percent now. Ryan’s favorability has dropped from 56 percent to 52 percent in that period. McConnell has slipped the most, however. The Kentucky senator was viewed favorably by 38 percent of Republicans and unfavorably by 30 percent in Fabrizio’s June survey. Now he’s viewed favorably by 27 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent. Again, this is among Republicans.
Trump’s approval rating is 75 percent among Republicans in Fabrizio’s poll, but just 54 percent approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing.
Asked who they blame more for the failure to repeal and replace Obamacare, 18 percent picked Trump and 82 percent picked Republicans in Congress.
What’s going on when Trump does not fulfill his campaign promises? In Fabrizio’s survey, 81 percent said it’s because “the Republicans in Congress didn’t support the president and blocked his promised proposal or policy.” Only 19 percent said it’s because, “The president didn’t work hard enough and do what was needed to be done to fulfill the promise.”
— Only about 1 in 3 Americans want to build the border wall, but they happen to be the same people who still support Trump. Even the right-wing polling firm Rasmussen, whose results skew Republican, found in an automated national poll last month that 56 percent of Americans oppose building a border wall “to help stop illegal immigration,” while 37 percent back it. A more reliable survey from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center showed in February that 35 percent support the wall and 62 percent oppose it.
Is that really a hill to die on? For Trump, who believes losing his core base of support could be fatal to his presidency, the answer is apparently yes. (Unless he’s bluffing, which is totally possible.)
— Trump’s base is happy because it looks like he’s taking steps to try following through on his promises. His shutdown threat was one of the biggest applause lines during his 76-minute speech at the Phoenix Convention Center.
The president’s 2020 reelection campaign is trying to build up its small-donor list by pressuring Senate Republicans to fund the wall. A mass email that went out under Trump’s name yesterday urged supporters to sign an “official” online petition. “I need your immediate help,” he wrote. “Let’s remind every single Senator the American VOTERS want this beautiful, impenetrable wall constructed. … This will only have an impact if EVERY American CITIZEN who understands the wall is a nonnegotiable signs this petition. … The Senate needs this urgent reminder that the American people want what they voted for. AS YOU SHOULD! We are so close to making this happen.” (In fact, they are not close at all.)
— GOP leaders on the Hill have no appetite for this fight, which they believe could derail the rest of their agenda. From Mike DeBonis, Damian Paletta and Elise Viebeck: “Republicans face a litany of high-stakes deadlines when they return to Washington after Labor Day: to extend funding for government agencies, raise the nation’s borrowing limit, and reauthorize programs for flood insurance and children’s health. GOP leaders also hope to begin an ambitious effort to rewrite the federal tax code in a bid to rescue their foundering legislative agenda. ‘So I don’t think anyone is interested in having a shutdown,’ Ryan said at a tax policy event in Oregon. ‘I don’t think it’s in our interest to do so.’ Ryan said the border wall should ultimately be funded, reflecting the wishes of most congressional Republicans … But he has refrained from engaging in Trump’s red-meat ‘build the wall’ rhetoric, in what GOP aides described as an effort to avoid poisoning upcoming negotiations with Democrats.”
Ryan went out of his way to downplay the prospects of a shutdown when asked about Trump’s Phoenix speech, predicting that Congress probably would pass a stopgap extension of funding to prevent a lapse when the fiscal year ends on Sept. 30 even if the wall issue remains unresolved.
McConnell has been somewhat evasive whenever directly pressed on the issue of wall funding, pivoting to express support for tougher border security more generally. But Trump has also been pressuring him to get rid of the legislative filibuster, so that he would not need to get Democratic senators to cross over. The president continued to harp on this message yesterday:
Many Republicans still have a bad taste in their mouths from the health-care fight. House members walked the plank to vote for a toxically unpopular bill. Trump celebrated with them in the Rose Garden, but then he went on Fox News and called the legislation “mean.” This is something many lawmakers realize could be used against them in attack ads next year. They also worry that the same thing could happen again on a budget or a tax bill.
— To be sure, threatening a shutdown is not without risk for the president. Trump got rolled in April negotiations to keep the government funded through the end of September. Realizing he’d been outmaneuvered by Democrats and upset about news coverage that made him look like bad at making deals – which so much of his identity is wrapped up in – he lashed out by threatening a shutdown in the fall. “Our country needs a good ‘shutdown’ in September to fix mess!” Trump tweeted on May 2.
That time is drawing nigh. If Trump caves once again and signs a budget without funding for the wall, it could make him look like weak and ineffective. If there is a protracted shutdown, on the other hand, independents and moderate Republicans might blame him.
This would be first shutdown in American history to happen when the same party controls both Congress and the White House. Every other shutdown has happened when presidents and leaders on the Hill from opposite parties were at loggerheads. It would make the GOP look incapable of governing. It could spook markets and donors.
— Trump will meet in the Oval Office at 11:45 a.m. today with the OMB Director Mick Mulvaney, his legislative affairs team and Vice President Pence to discuss their September strategy.
— While most congressional Republicans are supportive of a wall, there are some key holdouts. “Shutting the government down for $1.5 billion of a concrete structure doesn’t make sense,” Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas), who represents a district on the border with Mexico that Hillary Clinton carried last year, said on PBS “NewsHour” last night.
— Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) is among the Republicans who have expressed skepticismpublicly about Congress funding the wall.
Trump attacked Flake again on Twitter yesterday:
Shortly before taking the stage in Phoenix on Tuesday evening, the president met privately with two of Flake’s prospective primary challengers: state Treasurer Jeff DeWit and former Arizona GOP Chairman Robert Graham. “Trump ripped the Arizona senator during the brief meeting, calling him ‘the flake,’” Politico’s Alex Isenstadt reports.“Trump … told DeWit and Graham, both of whom have aligned with the president, to get back to him about their interest in running. Also participating in the huddle was Rep. Trent Franks, a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus who appeared at the rally. At one point, Franks told the president that either DeWit or Graham would make strong challengers to Flake.”
— The border battle is escalating amid deeper tensions between the president and his adopted party on Capitol Hill. Much of Trump’s recent contact with key players on Capitol Hill has been counterproductive.
Trump has been lashing out at Republican lawmakers for not giving him more support in the face of mounting Russia-related investigations.
He even called Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) on Aug. 7 to complain about a bill he’d just introduced that would make it harder for him to fire Robert Mueller as special counsel, Politico reported last night.
Two days after that, Trump phoned McConnell from his New Jersey golf club to berate him for the failure of the health-care bill. “He was even more animated about what he intimated was the Senate leader’s refusal to protect him from investigations of Russian interference in the 2016 election,” the New York Times reported, adding that the call “quickly devolved into a profane shouting match.”
Trump also tried unsuccessfully to persuade Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) to back off the Russia sanctions legislation, arguing that the bill would damage his presidency. The Foreign Relations Committee chairman held firm.
“Since coming into the West Wing, chief of staff John Kelly has tried to curb Trump’s unscheduled interactions with legislators, senior administration officials say,” per Politico’s Josh Dawsey and Elana Schor. “Trump has been known to see a senator on TV or think about an issue and immediately ask White House assistant Madeleine Westerhout to dial the senator. But Kelly has asked that senior White House aides, such as legislative affairs head Marc Short, be present for the calls‚ and for Trump to be briefed in advance on the topic.”
— McConnell and the White House issued statements yesterday trying to make things look hunky dory.
Press Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Trump and McConnell “remain united on many shared priorities, including … constructing a southern border wall…” “They will hold previously scheduled meetings following the August recess to discuss these critical items with members of the congressional leadership and the President’s Cabinet,” she said.
McConnell’s statement mentioned a host of “shared goals” that he is in “regular touch” with the administration about, including the budget, but notably he omitted any mention of the border wall: “We are working together to develop tax reform and infrastructure legislation so we can grow the economy and create jobs; to prevent a government default; to fund the government so we can advance our priorities in the short and long terms; to pass the defense authorization and defense appropriations bills so we can support our troops and help implement an effective strategy against ISIL; to provide relief from Obamacare; and to continue our progress for our nation’s veterans.”
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