Hard to identify where Trump is performing as well as he did in 2016
ANALYSIS — Whether you believe in convention bounces or not, President Donald Trump and the Republicans need one to salvage the elections this fall.
On the current trajectory, former Vice President Joe Biden is likely to win the White House and Democrats are more likely than not to take control of the Senate. And even though the president told The Wall Street Journal that Republicans would take back the House, Democrats are on pace to grow their majority.
Nearly four years later, the 2016 presidential election result looms over any political projection. But Trump’s victory should be a lesson in probability rather than a call to ignore data. We should reject the false choice between following the data and being open-minded about less likely results. Continue reading.