The following article by Philip Bump was posted on the Washington Post website August 8, 2018:
President Trump praised Republican Troy Balderson at a rally in Lewis Center, Ohio, on Aug. 4, ahead of the special election for the state’s 12th District. (The Washington Post)
It took President Trump very little time to assume credit for Republican Troy Balderson’s apparent victory in Tuesday night’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District.
“When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good,” Trump wrote on Twitter a bit after all the precincts were counted. “After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting.”
Most of that is obviously untrue. The early vote was always expected to favor Democrat Danny O’Connor by a wide margin; he won it by about 27 points despite ending the night down a point in the overall vote. No turn for the better in that regard, given that Trump claims the margin was 28 points when he arrived. (It’s not clear how the votes actually broke down. Ohio only offered data on the party composition of the voters returning ballots.)