A true endpoint will come when a vaccine or therapy is discovered, tested, manufactured and distributed widely enough to protect a large share of the population, in addition to the point when sufficient people have recovered from sickness to possess natural immunity against a reinfection. But a vaccine could be a year to 18 months away, at least; and President Trump’s optimism at a news conference Thursday notwithstanding, antiviral drugs are hard to develop, even on a crash basis.
In the meantime, the goal must be to “flatten the curve,” or suppress the extent of infection enough to avoid massive overload on hospitals, as already happened in Italy. This might take two or three months, judging by China’s experience. That brings us to summer. If heat and humidity don’t impede the virus, what then? A study published this week by the Imperial College London, based on modeling, warned that if the first suppression measures are relaxed too soon or for too long, “we predict that transmission will quickly rebound.” Hopefully, some people who were sick will recover with natural immunity. But a large chunk of the population will remain as vulnerable in August as they are today. Continue reading.