How Voters Think About the Economy, Government, and Poverty Ahead of the 2020 Election
Introduction and summary
The 2020 presidential election cycle will be one of the most consequential in U.S. history. Although electoral outcomes often turn on candidate evaluations or social and cultural choices unrelated to public policy, voters in the upcoming year will likely confront a choice between two competing visions of domestic policy that could shape America’s economy and society for a generation. Will voters opt to continue President Donald Trump’s and congressional Republicans’ approach of large tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and increased restrictions on health care and other assistance programs? Or will voters choose to go in a different direction, backing the eventual Democratic nominee’s and congressional Democrats’ plans for increased taxation on the wealthy, greater scrutiny and regulation of corporations, and expanded health care access and income assistance efforts? Alternatively, will a potential split decision by voters lead to ongoing divided government and continued haphazard approaches to domestic and economic policy by leaders built less on clear ideological choices and more on institutional and partisan bargaining?
Answers to these big political questions first require a deeper sense of what voters actually believe about the current state of the nation’s economy; their own personal economic situations; and their views on a range of complex issues related to the government and governing, social policy, and anti-poverty efforts. In order to better understand the landscape for policymaking, the Center for American Progress and Health Care for America Now, in partnership with the public opinion firm GBAO, designed a comprehensive national survey to provide analysts, activists, journalists, and practitioners with concrete empirical data about the views of the American electorate ahead of the 2020 election.
Overall, despite low unemployment and other positive macroeconomic indicators, the study finds voters are conflicted in their evaluations of the national economic situation; President Trump’s economic stewardship; and in terms of their own personal economic situations and exposure to hardship, with large partisan and demographic divides emerging on many key questions. When it comes to basic attitudes about the economy and public policy—disconnected from the president himself—the study finds wider consensus around the need for active governmental policies to reduce poverty and expand economic opportunity, address health care access and costs, improve education and infrastructure, curb corporate power, and tax the super wealthy. Voters split more over theoretical debates about fighting inequality, the relative role of the private and public sectors in job creation, regulation, and the effectiveness of government action in addressing social problems. Likewise, Democratic and Republican voters express divergent opinions about the proper level of federal taxation and in terms of their personal willingness to pay more in taxes to expand health care. In addition, the study finds strong support across party lines for economic narratives focused on “taking back our government from wealthy special interests”; making sure government “works for all people”; and finding political leadership committed to “uniting people” around “simple goals we all share.”