Tag: U.S. economy

The GOP’s temporary sugar high for the economy has now worn off. Here’s the truth behind Trump’s ‘booming’ rhetoric

AlterNet logoDonald Trump has been on a mission this week to distract from his impeachment by touting his administration’s economic record. First, he launched a 30-second ad after the Super Bowl promising that “the best is yet to come.” Then, in his State of the Union address Tuesday night, Trump highlighted the “American Comeback.” The speech was full of audacious—and characteristically inaccurate—claims: “our economy is the best it has ever been”; the “average unemployment rate … is lower than any administration in the history of our country”; and “wages are rising fast.”

The reality, however, doesn’t match Trump’s rhetoric. In fact, it would take much longer than a 30-second commercial to highlight the many ways that the U.S. economy isn’t working for all. Still, the moment provides an opening for Democratic presidential candidates to challenge the president’s record.

In 2019, for instance, the gap between the richest and poorest households in the United States reached its highest point in more than 50 years. The number of Americans without health insurance continues to climb following years of declines since the passage and implementation of Obamacare. And household debt is now in excess of $14 trillion, exceeding the pre-recession high. Continue reading.

U.S. economy grew 2.3 percent in 2019, the slowest of Trump’s presidency

Washington Post logoGrowth, while solid, was held back by trade fears and a business investment slump

The U.S. economy grew 2.3 percent in 2019, a solid pace that was boosted by strong consumer and government spending but fell short of President Trump’s promise to deliver at least 3 percent growth.

Last year’s growth was the weakest since Trump took office, according to Commerce Department datareleased Thursday, as Trump’s escalating trade war with China triggered a major pullback in business spending and investment. From April through December, business investment contracted as corporate leaders preferred to sit on cash or return it to investors instead of using it to build factories or buy equipment.

The falloff in growth — from 2.9 percent in 2018 to a more typical pace in 2019 — suggests the stimulus from the tax cuts is wearing off and the trade war is canceling out many of its benefits. The tax cuts came with a hefty price tag that many Republicans hoped would be offset by stronger growth for years.

Trump’s Sick and Wealthy Trade Deficit

Recent trade data suggest America’s deficit is narrowing, but experts are skeptical the economy is meaningfully benefiting.

AMERICA’S TRADE DEFICIT is expected to drop in 2019 to its lowest level since President Donald Trump entered the White House – an apparent sign that his liberal use of tariffs and trade threats is fulfilling a key campaign promise of chipping away at the U.S. trade shortfall with the rest of the world.

But America’s trade standing may not be nearly as healthy as it looks.

Analysts remain unconvinced that the trade barriers have meaningfully improved the U.S. economy or supported workers and businesses. Exports were still down through the first 11 months of 2019, and new research suggests American importers and consumers have borne the brunt of the tariffs’ economic impact. Continue reading.

As Trump Hails Stock Market, Democrats Point to Struggling Workers

New York Times logoIn Iowa, Democratic candidates sought to undercut President Trump’s core message of a strong economy by making the case that it isn’t working for the right people.

DES MOINES — On paper, Esther Mabior should be fine. She has a degree from Iowa State University, where she majored in economics, and lives in a city where her chosen profession, the insurance business, employs thousands of people.

But Ms. Mabior, 26, can’t find a job as an insurance adjuster. And she says her own experience is a lot like the stock market highs and the ever-expanding gross domestic product she keeps hearing about: It all looks good on the surface, but deeper down things aren’t so rosy.

“There may be people doing well,” Ms. Mabior said after attending an event for Pete Buttigieg’s campaign in Des Moines over the weekend, calling herself “living proof” that as far as the economy is concerned, “it’s not that great.” Continue reading

3 factors that could make or break Trump in 2020

The president’s big economic achievements were wrapped up in 2019. Now Trump needs momentum in the economy and markets to stretch out for more than 10 months through Election Day.

Most of the economic gifts President Donald Trump is going to get for 2020 are already unwrapped and out from under the tree.

The Federal Reserve slashed rates and went dark. The “phase one” China deal is pretty much done. So is the new NAFTA.

That leaves one big question for a recently impeached president as he heads for a dicey reelection bid: What’s left to goose markets and the economy beyond what most expect will be a pretty blah 2020?

Continue reading

Corporate debt nears a record $10 trillion, and borrowing binge poses new risks

Washington Post logoLittle more than a decade after consumers binged on inexpensive mortgages that helped bring on a global financial crisis, a new debt surge — this time by major corporations — threatens to unleash fresh turmoil.

A decade of historically low interest rates has allowed companies to sell record amounts of bonds to investors, sending total U.S. corporate debt to nearly $10 trillion, or a record 47 percent of the overall economy.

In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund and major institutional investors such as BlackRock and American Funds all have sounded the alarm about the mounting corporate obligations.

View the complete November 29 article by David J. Lynch on The Washington Post website here.

How Rust Belt Economic Distress May Doom Trump In 2020

If President Donald Trump doesn’t serve a second term, it probably won’t be because of impeachment — as the GOP-controlled U.S. Senate, under the direction of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is almost certain to acquit him on whatever articles of impeachment he ends up being indicted on. One thing that is very much up in the air, however, is the 2020 election: whether or not Trump is voted out of office remains to be seen. And Paul Brandus, founder of West Wing Reports, stresses in a November 26 op-ed for USA Today that one thing that could mean the difference between Trump getting reelected or not are the economic conditions in Rust Belt states.

Brandus is skeptical over claims that the impeachment inquiry presently taking place in the U.S. House of Representatives could sway public opinion in a big way.

“Anyone who claims to know whether impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump will move the public opinion needle one way or the other should check that assumption at the door,” Brandus asserts. “We’re witnessing a first here: no president running for reelection has ever done so under the cloud of possible removal from office. Not Andrew Johnson, who was never elected president in the first place. Not Richard Nixon and not Bill Clinton, both of whom had been safely reelected before running into their impeachment buzzsaws.”

View the complete November 28 article by Alex Henderson from AlterNet on the National Memo website here.

Red and Blue Economies Are Heading in Sharply Different Directions

New York Times logoOn the surface, there seems to be parity between Democratic-leaning and Republican-leaning metro areas, but take a closer look.

At a quick glance, red and blue metropolitan areas are performing equally well on average in the most watched indicators of labor market health.

Employment growth in the year ending in the first quarter of 2019 was 1.4 percent in both Democratic-leaning and Republican-leaning metro areas, and the unemployment rate in both types of places is roughly equivalent.

Silicon Valley (blue) is booming. So is Provo, Utah (red).

View the complete November 13 article by Jed Kolko on The New York Times website here.

Trump’s Policies Have Hurt African Americans

This week, Trump will kick off his Black Voices for Trump Coalition initiative. Despite his claims, Trump’s policies have hurt African Americans. Take a look:

Economy:

Trump’s tax law disproportionately hurt African Americans. 

  • African Americans were disproportionately left out from Trump’s tax cut.
  • African American households received only 5% of the benefits from Trump’s tax law, despite making up about 13% of U.S. households.

Education:

Trump rolled back Obama-era efforts geared toward protecting black students from discrimination in school punishment. 

  • The Trump administration rolled back Obama-era guidance on school discipline aimed at protecting black students from being punished more severely.
  • DeVos delayed implementing regulations that helped identify racial disparities in special needs programs in public schools.
  • Trump’s Education Department rescinded Obama-era guidelines for public schools to consider race in trying to diversify their campuses.

Criminal Justice:

Trump took us backwards on criminal justice by rescinding and weakening Obama-era protections on policing.

Trump worked to make life harder for defendants and the imprisoned.

  • The Trump administration rescinded guidance geared toward protecting lower-income people from being buried in legal fees.
  • Trump’s administration cut support for prisoner halfway houses for those transitioning back into society.
  • The Trump administration sought to make legal aid less accessible and argued that some federal prisoners shouldn’t be entitled to challenge their sentences in court.

While Trump tries to publicly take credit for the release of inmates through criminal justice reform, his administration is privately working to put those same inmates back behind bars.

  • Trump is touting the First Step Act in an attempt to reach out to the Black community, but his administration is working behind the scenes to undermine the law and put the inmates Trump claims to champion back behind bars.

Trump encouraged harsher sentences for drug offenses, including non-violent ones.

  • Trump’s DOJ gave federal prosecutors wider latitude to pursue criminal drug charges and harsher sentences.
  • Trump’s DOJ reinstituted the death penalty and advised federal prosecutors to seek death sentences in cases involving large quantities of drugs.

It’s not just his policies that hurt the African American community. We all remember when Trump…

Trump defended white supremacists and repeatedly refused to denounce the KKK as a candidate and as president. 

  • Trump said removing confederate monuments was “trying to take away our culture, our history.”
  • Trump said there were “very fine people” on both sides at a white supremacist march in Charlottesville.
  • Trump refused to disavow David Duke and the KKK four times in one interview.

Trump repeatedly took aim at African Americans during his 2016 campaign.

  • Trump believed that urban minorities writ large are “living in hell.”
  • Trump described African Americans and Hispanics as communities wholly impoverished and crime-ridden.
  • Trump suggested that all African Americans were living in poverty.
  • Trump claimed he had “no opinion” of whether or not there were racial disparities in law enforcement.
  • Trump decried the Black Lives Matter movement and thought they were looking for trouble.

 

Robert Reich: There are only 5 ways to become a billionaire — and none of them involve being successful in free market capitalism

AlterNet logoBillionaires are wailing that Elizabeth Warren’s and Bernie Sanders’s wealth tax proposals are attacks on free market capitalism.

Warren “vilifies successful people,” says Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase.

Rubbish. There are basically only five ways to accumulate a billion dollars, and none of them has to do with being successful in free market capitalism.

View the complete November 11 article by Robert Reich on the AlterNet website here.