History suggests that Republicans have decent odds of capturing the House, the Senate, or both in next year’s midterm elections. In every modern midterm election except 1998 and 2002, the party out of the White House has gained seats in at least one chamber, and Democrats have only four seats to spare in the House and none in the Senate to preserve their majorities.
But as POLITICO’s Huddle noted on Tuesday, one wildcard could complicate the GOP’s efforts to make gains in 2022: former President Donald Trump’s quest for “revenge” on GOP lawmakers who haven’t shown sufficient loyalty to him.
“Donald Trump is increasingly inserting himself in the primary races of his political enemies as a form of revenge against Republicans who voted to impeach the former president after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — despite warnings from congressional allies that he should be careful about wading into primary races,” reported Olivia Beavers.’ Continue reading.
“One of his ugliest and most troubling performances in recent memory,” one observer said of Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania.