Tag: recession warnings

Recession warnings pose 2020 threat to Trump

The Hill logoFears that a recession could hit the U.S. next year are growing on Wall Street, creating a potential headache for President Trump as he seeks to highlight the economy in his bid for a second term.

Economists at Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in the past few days all raised concerns that a recession between now and next year’s elections is becoming more likely. And they all pointed the finger of blame at Trump’s trade policy.

“I think recession is increasingly likely,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said on Monday. “I’d put the odds at just over even for a recession between now and the end of 2020, assuming the president follows through on his tariff threats.”

View the complete August 13 article by Niv Ellis on The Hill website here.

Recession Warning in Bond Market Sharpens, Adding Pressure on Fed

New York Times logoA rush to safer investments has pushed government bond yields close to lows not seen since 2016, when a slowdown gripped the economy.

Wall Street has a message for the Federal Reserve: You are not done cutting rates.

Even as the central bank lowered borrowing costs last month, it tried to temper expectations that a string of additional moves were imminent. But in the financial markets, it is clear that investors expect more cuts to come.

In bond markets this week, yields on government debt have touched lows not seen since 2016, when a sharp slowdown in growth — and what many now view as a mini-recession — gripped the economy. The decline implies investors have substantially downgraded their expectations for the economy.

View the complete August 8 article by Matt Phillips on The New York Times website here.