How 700 Epidemiologists Are Living Now, and What They Think Is Next

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They are going to the grocery store again, but don’t see vaccines making life normal right away.

Even with coronavirus vaccines on the way, many epidemiologists do not expect their lives to return to pre-pandemic normal until most Americans are vaccinated. In the meantime, most have eased up on some precautions — now going to the grocery store or seeing friends outdoors, for example — but are as cautious as ever about many activities of daily life.

In a new informal survey of 700 epidemiologists by The New York Times, half said they would not change their personal behavior until at least 70 percent of the population was vaccinated. Thirty percent said they would make some changes once they were vaccinated themselves.

A minority of the epidemiologists said that if highly effective vaccines were widely distributed, it would be safe for Americans to begin living more freely this summer: “I am optimistic that the encouraging vaccine results mean we’ll be back on track by or during summer 2021,” said Kelly Strutz, an assistant professor at Michigan State University. Continue reading.

“How can I trust them?”: Inside Black Americans’ very justified vaccine skepticism

On Wednesday, the United States reported over 2,800 deaths due to coronavirus in a single day. This grim figure marks the highest single-day death count ever recorded in the U.S. In November alone, the U.S. reported over 4 million coronavirus cases, more than what most countries have seen all year. With the federal government failing on multiple levels, some Americans are looking to one new savior: a coronavirus vaccine.

This week, the United Kingdom became the first country to approve U.S.-based Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech’s vaccine, with plans to roll out shots next week. While the U.S. hasn’t reached a decision as fast, an advisory committee of the Food and Drug Administration will meet on Dec. 10 to determine whether or not it will grant emergency approval to Pfizer. The decision will then go on to the FDA itself. Along with Pfizer’s vaccine, scientists are reviewing data from Moderna.

Talk of a vaccine is one thing. Watching as it becomes a reality is another, and the thought brings renewed hope for some — but not necessarily the communities most impacted by the pandemic. Per the COVID Racial Data Tracker, part of The Atlantic‘s COVID Tracking Project, Black people nationwide are dying at two times the rate of white people, for a current total of 47,704 Black lives lost. Black people account for nearly 20% of deaths in the U.S. where race is known.

Biden unveils health team with Becerra, Murthy, Walensky in top roles

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President-elect Joe Biden officially unveiled his health team early Monday, naming California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) as secretary of Health and Human Services.

Vivek Murthy was selected to return to his role as surgeon general, and Rochelle Walensky was picked as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Biden also announced that Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious diseases expert, will remain as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Continue reading.

‘One person standing in the way’: Abysmal jobs report ramps up pressure on McConnell for COVID relief

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The Labor Department’s release Friday of an abysmal jobs report showing that U.S. hiring slowed dramatically in November served as another occasion for Democratic lawmakers, progressive advocacy groups, and economists to demand that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell end his months-long obstruction of a desperately needed coronavirus relief package.

Devoid of any “silver linings”, the fresh jobs numbers further undercut the Kentucky Republican’s argument just last month that the economy is trending in the right direction and therefore requires less stimulus to drag it out of recessionary territory. According to Friday’s report, the U.S. added just 245,000 jobs in November, down from 610,000 in October and the fifth consecutive month hiring has slowed.

“Congress knows how to help workers and families. It knows how to prevent the looming recession. One person is standing in the way. Mitch McConnell’s political games are costing lives and livelihoods.”

Sen. Ron Wyden

Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, warned that with key federal unemployment programs set to expire at the end of December and coronavirus infections on the rise nationwide, “millions of workers and their families are in for an even harsher winter” unless Congress takes decisive action. Continue reading.

21 COVID-19 deaths push Minnesota above 4,000 for pandemic

Pressure on Minnesota hospital ICUs shows continued signs of easing.

Twenty-one more COVID-19 deaths were reported by Minnesota health authorities on Monday, pushing the state above 4,000 deaths amid signs that the latest pandemic wave is easing.

The Minnesota Department of Health on Monday reported a total of 4,005 deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the state needed less than one month to add another 1,000 fatalities to its pandemic toll. It took three months for Minnesota to go from 1,000 to 2,000 COVID-19 deaths this summer, and nearly two months to go from 2,000 to 3,000 this fall.

The milestone reflects the fall surge in COVID-19 — with 5,296 newly confirmed infections bringing the state’s total to 356,152 — that has declined over the past two weeks. Continue reading.

Trump’s Operation Warp Speed promised a flood of covid vaccines. Instead, states are expecting a trickle.

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The administration pledged several hundred million doses in 2020. Companies will actually ship about 10 percent of that.

Federal officials have slashed the amount of coronavirus vaccine they plan to ship to states in December because of constraints on supply, sending local officials into a scramble to adjust vaccination plans and highlighting how early promises of a vast stockpile before the end of 2020 have fallen short.

Instead of the delivery of 300 million or so doses of vaccine immediately after emergency-use approval and before the end of 2020 as the Trump administration had originally promised, current plans call for availability of around a tenth of that, or 35 to 40 million doses.

Two vaccines, from manufacturers Pfizer and Moderna, which both use a novel form of mRNA to help trigger immune response, are on the verge of winning Food and Drug Administration clearance this month. Approval would cap an unprecedented sprint by government and drug companies to develop, test and manufacture a defense against the worst pandemic in a century — part of the Operation Warp Speed initiative that promised six companies advance purchase orders totaling $9.3 billion. Continue reading.

Jobs report shows weakening trend heading into holidays, increasing the case for stimulus

Job growth slowed significantly in November and looks set to decline even more, as the spreading pandemic hits all sorts of economic activity and results in more shutdowns.

The creation of just 245,000 payrolls, about 200,000 below forecast, signals a decline in the labor market that economists say could result in a negative number for December. The report also adds to the case for fiscal stimulus to bridge the economy to a time next year, when vaccine distribution is expected to allow a return to a more normal environment, economists said.

“This is pretty poor overall. It’s really hard to find anything good to say about it, to be honest. Payroll growth came in weaker than expected, significantly weaker than any time since the recovery began,” said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies. “Everything was pointing to job growth slowing and of course, it’s related to the surge in Covid. The hiring in retail and hospitality was very weak here and that’s signs of Covid and social distancing rules keeping the recovery from expanding … On the plus side, average hourly wages are up 0.3%.” Continue reading.

Pelosi bullish on COVID-19 relief: ‘We cannot leave without it’

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Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) expressed optimism Friday that the parties will come together to secure a coronavirus relief package before Congress leaves Washington for the winter holidays.

Addressing reporters in the Capitol, the Speaker said party negotiators still have a number of disagreements to iron out to win such an agreement, but indicated the sides are making steady progress and all but guaranteed that a bipartisan deal will be sealed in the coming days.

“We’ll take the time we need and we must get it done,” Pelosi said. “We cannot leave without it.” Continue reading.

Trump largely silent as health officials sound COVID-19 alarm

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Trump administration health officials are issuing increasingly dire warnings about the coronavirus and its rapid spread across the country, drawing a sharp contrast to the president’s reluctance to acknowledge the severity of the crisis head-on.

President Trump has been largely silent when it comes to warning the public about the need for precautions or announcing major new steps aimed at curbing the spread of the virus before a vaccine is widely available.

Instead, many of his public statements have focused on election conspiracy theories and his refusal to accept the results, underscored by a 46-minute video he posted to Facebook on Wednesday. Continue reading.

Biden backs $900B compromise coronavirus stimulus bill

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President-elect Joe Biden on Thursday described the $900 billion congressional stimulus proposal as a “good start” and said he believed Congress should pass it.

“That would be a good start. It’s not enough,” Biden said during a Thursday interview with CNN host Jake Tapper.

“I think it should be passed,” Biden continued. “I’m going to ask for more … when we get there to get things done.” Continue reading.