Is a War With Iran on the Horizon?

The Trump Administration Is Reckless Enough to Turn the Cold War With Iran Into a Hot One

Here’s the foreign policy question of questions in 2019: Are President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, all severely weakened at home and with few allies abroad, reckless enough to set off a war with Iran? Could military actions designed to be limited — say, a heightening of the Israeli bombing of Iranian forces inside Syria, or possible U.S. cross-border attacks from Iraq, or a clash between American and Iranian naval ships in the Persian Gulf — trigger a wider war?

Worryingly, the answers are: yes and yes. Even though Western Europe has lined up in opposition to any future conflict with Iran, even though Russia and China would rail against it, even though most Washington foreign policy experts would be horrified by the outbreak of such a war, it could happen. Continue reading “Is a War With Iran on the Horizon?”

John Bolton tried to explain away Trump’s Otto Warmbier comments — and it went poorly

Serving President Trump often means trying to square a rhetorical circle. Sometimes it requires pretending he didn’t say what he said. Other times you’ll (gently) distance yourself from something you clearly regard as ridiculous.

And if you’re John Bolton on Sunday, it’s both.

On two Sunday shows, Trump’s national security adviser was asked to account for Trump’s controversial comments about Otto Warmbier. Before Trump departed from their failed Hanoi summit last week, he gave North Korean leader Kim Jong Un a little gift. He said he didn’t believe Kim knew Warmbier, a 22-year-old University of Virginia student, had been mistreated in a North Korean prison before his death. This strained credulity, to say the least.

View the complete March 4 article by Aaron Blake on The Washington Post website here.

John Bolton is a serial arms control killer

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton attended a press conference at the Interfax News agency in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2018. Credit: REX

John Bolton relishes in targeting nuclear arms treaties. He is very good at it.

The U.S. national security adviser’s latest hit is the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, but his list of victims goes back decades. He had a hand in either the U.S. withdrawal or repeal of Richard Nixon’s Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, Bill Clinton’s Agreed Framework with North Korea and Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal.

Now he has helped put the knife into Ronald Reagan’s landmark treaty, one that broke the back of the nuclear arms race in 1987. It was the first time that the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to destroy, not just limit, nuclear weapons. Together they destroyed almost 2,700 perfectly good nuclear weapons that they had spent billions of dollars and many years building. It began the process of massive reductions in global nuclear arms that continued until the current administration.

View the complete February 1 commentary by Joseph Cirincione on The Washington Post website here.

Joseph Cirincione is a nuclear weapons policy expert and president of the Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation. 

Contradicting Trump, Bolton says no withdrawal from Syria until ISIS destroyed, Kurds’ safety guaranteed

White House national security adviser John Bolton on Sunday outlined conditions for a U.S. troop departure from Syria that appeared to contradict President Trump’s insistence less than a month ago that the withdrawal would be immediate and without conditions.

Speaking during a visit to Israel, Bolton said that certain “objectives” must be achieved before a pullout could take place. “The timetable flows from the policy decisions that we need to implement.”

Bolton acknowledged that pockets of the Islamic State remain undefeated and that a quick U.S. pullout could endanger U.S. partners and allies in the region, as well as U.S. forces themselves.

View the complete January 6 article by Karen DeYoung and Karoun Demirjian on The Washington Post website here.

U.S. to close Palestinian office in Washington, citing lack of progress on peace process with Israel

The following article by Missy Ryan, Anne Gearan and Karen DeYoung was posted on the Washington Post website September 10, 2018:

National security adviser John Bolton said Sept. 10 those who cooperate with an International Criminal Court probe of U.S. actions would be punished. (The Washington Post)

The Trump administration has ordered the closure of the Palestine Liberation Organization office in Washington because the PLO “has not taken steps to advance the start of direct and meaningful negotiations with Israel,” the State Department said Monday.

The decision follows an extended period of estrangement between the Palestinian Authority government on the West Bank and the administration, which has already canceled most U.S. aid to Palestinians and recognized Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. Those moves earlier this year provoked Palestinian withdrawal from talks over a still-to-be-released U.S. plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

“PLO leadership has condemned a U.S. peace plan they have not yet seen and refused to engage with the U.S. government with respect to peace efforts and otherwise,” the statement said. The office has been instructed to close no later than Oct. 10.

View the complete article here.

Dems Want to Know If Bolton Told White House About Contact With Alleged Spy

The following article by Stephanie Akin was posted on the Roll Call website August 20, 2018:

National security adviser appeared with Butina at gun rights roundtable when he worked for NRA

National Security Adviser John Bolton reportedly appeared with alleged Russian spy Maria Butina when he was a top official with the National Rifle Association. Credit: Mark Wilson, Getty Images file photo

Top Democrats on the House Oversight Committee want to know if National Security Adviser John Bolton told the White House about his reported contact with alleged Russian spy Maria Butina before he was appointed by President Trump.

Bolton appeared with Butina in a video roundtable discussion about gun rights, reportedly sponsored by the Russian organization Right to Bear Arms, in his previous position as a top National Rifle Association official, Democrats Elijah Cummings and Stephen Lynch wrote in a letter to White House Chief of Staff John Kelly delivered Monday.

Butina was charged in July by federal prosecutors with infiltrating the National Rifle Association and spying on the United States.

View the complete article here.

North Korea has not taken steps to denuclearize, John Bolton says

The following article by Felicia Sonmez was posted on the Washington Post website August 7, 2018:

National security adviser Bolton briefs the media on election interference at the White House. Credit: Mark Wilson, Getty Images

National security adviser John Bolton said Tuesday that North Korea has not made progress toward denuclearization in a dismal acknowledgment that comes nearly two months after President Trump held a historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore.

“The United States has lived up to the Singapore declaration. It’s just North Korea that has not taken the steps we feel are necessary to denuclearize,” Bolton said in an interview on Fox News Channel on Tuesday morning.

He added the United States will continue to apply pressure until Pyongyang produces results.

View the complete article here.

Trump, Pompeo, and Bolton: The Path to War

The following article by Ken Gude was posted on the Center for American Progress website April 11, 2018:

CIA director Mike Pompeo attends a meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House on March, 20, 2018, in Washington, D.C. Credit: Getty/Saul Loeb/AFP Photo

President Donald Trump is putting the United States on a dangerous path to devastating wars by shuffling his national security team to assemble a war Cabinet. To fill the position of America’s top diplomat, President Trump has chosen the hawkish current CIA Director Mike Pompeo—a man who notoriously prefers regime change to diplomacy. And newly appointed National Security Adviser John R. Bolton was one of the principle architects and defenders of the Iraq War; wants to abrogate the Iran deal; and appears eager to launch preventive military strikes against North Korea. Both Pompeo and Bolton replace less hawkish advisers and will enable the worst instincts of the already erratic and reckless President Trump. By nominating Pompeo and appointing Bolton, Trump has chosen a path that could lead to war. Continue reading “Trump, Pompeo, and Bolton: The Path to War”

In John Bolton, Trump Finds a Fellow Political Blowtorch. Will Foreign Policy Burn?

The following article by Peter Baker was posted on the New York Times website April 8, 2018:

John R. Bolton, who becomes President Trump’s national security adviser on Monday, has a track record of voicing strong opinions and bruising colleagues’ feelings. Credit: Steve Hebert for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — Shortly after Ambassador John R. Bolton was sent to represent the United States at the United Nations, an institution he had long scorned as an anti-American citadel of corruption, he hosted President George W. Bush for a visit.

“Are you having fun?” Mr. Bush asked.

“It’s a target-rich environment,” Mr. Bolton replied.

Mr. Bolton, who takes over Monday as President Trump’s third national security adviser with Syria as his most immediate challenge, and talks with North Korea and the future of the Iranian nuclear deal not far behind, loves nothing more than a good target. Over a long and colorful career he has had many of them: the United Nations, first and foremost. But also the International Criminal Court and the Antiballistic Missile Treaty. North KoreaIranChinaRussia. The Palestinian Authority. The European Union. Continue reading “In John Bolton, Trump Finds a Fellow Political Blowtorch. Will Foreign Policy Burn?”

Pompeo and Bolton Appointments Raise Alarm Over Ties to Anti-Islam Groups

The following article by Laurie Goodstein was posted on the New York Times website April 6, 2018:

Mike Pompeo, the C.I.A. director, has been chosen by President Trump to replace Rex Tillerson as secretary of state .Credit Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Nearly two months after the Boston Marathon bombing, Mike Pompeo, then a congressman from Kansas, took to the floor of the House to denounce American Muslim leaders for what he called their “silence” in response to the heinous terrorist attack.

“Silence has made these Islamic leaders across America potentially complicit in these acts,” Mr. Pompeo said, reading from prepared remarks.

In fact, more than half a dozen American Muslim organizations had issued statements condemning the bombing within hours of the attack. In the days following, Muslim groups organized news conferences, blood drives and prayer vigils. Mr. Pompeo was immediately informed that he was wrong, but did not apologize or respond to Muslim groups stung by his remarks. Continue reading “Pompeo and Bolton Appointments Raise Alarm Over Ties to Anti-Islam Groups”