Tag: economic slowdown

‘Restart the Economy’ is a prayer to a conservative God who demands human sacrifice

AlterNet logoAccording to classic interpretations of the Jewish and Christian Bibles, a Canaanite deity named Moloch demanded the sacrifice of children. There is a long history of writing about this bloodthirsty god spanning the ancient world to John Milton’s Paradise Lost to Allen Ginsberg’s “Howl” to modern social commentators. One recurring point is that the depravity of Moloch was reflected in his insatiable lust for innocent flesh.

How could anyone worship such a monster?

Readers have drawn further connections: human sacrifice marks not only Moloch as evil, but also the population who offers their children to him. This is the biblical justification given for why Israelites should exterminate Canaanites, the worship of their gods, and their customs from the Promised Land.  Continue reading.

U.S. stock market suffers worst crash since 1987, as Americans wake up to a new normal of life

Washington Post logoThursday’s market plunge marked the second time in one week that a temporary, 15-minute halt to trading was triggered to stop a panic

The stock market crashed to its worst day since 1987, shrugging off dramatic intervention by two central banks and a prime-time address by President Trump as Americans realized the coronavirus will impose new limits on their daily lives.

The Dow Jones industrial average posted its largest one-day point loss in history, dropping almost 2,353 points to close at 21,200.62. In percentage terms, the 10 percent loss marked the Dow’s worst day since the infamous October day known as “Black Monday.”

The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell into a bear market, defined as falling 20 percent from a prior high. In an epic day-long rout, European markets suffered similar declines, with exchanges in Paris and Frankfurt shedding more than 12 percent and London’s FTSE index losing nearly 11 percent. Continue reading.

CEO confidence sinks to lowest level since 2016

Axios logoConfidence among the nation’s top CEOs saw the biggest quarter-over-quarter drop in 7 years and hit a level not seen since the 4th quarter of 2016, according to a closely-watched survey by the Business Roundtable.

Why it matters: Corporate America’s level of optimism has dramatically receded from the levels when President Trump took office. Amid heightened trade war uncertainty, CEOs have downgraded expectations for hiring, capital spending and sales growth — potentially exacerbating fears that the record economic expansion could be coming to an end.

“American businesses now have their foot poised above the brake, and they’re tapping the brake periodically.”

— Joshua Bolten, president and CEO of Business Roundtable, in statement

View the complete September 18 article by Courtenay Brown on the Axios website here.

Slowing job growth raises 2020 stakes for Trump

The Hill logoAn underwhelming August jobs report is adding to fears of an economic slowdown, raising the stakes for President Trump‘s reelection bid.

The U.S. added roughly 130,000 jobs in August, according to federal data released Friday, undershooting economists’ expectations as the labor market continues to slow.

The resilient job market has been one of Trump’s top selling points as he attempts to win re-election on the strength of the U.S. economy. But the disappointing August jobs report threatens to undercut Trump’s message ahead of a critical stretch for the economy.

View the complete September 6 article by Sylvan Lane on The Hill website here.

Trump And Fox Blame ‘Fake Media’ For Looming Recession

President Donald Trump and his allies at Fox News have settled on a strategy to deal with the possibility of an oncoming economic recession: Blame the media.

The United States is currently experiencing the longest economic expansion on record, growing every quarter since the early days of President Barack Obama’s tenure. But no boom lasts forever, and key economic indicators suggest that the economy is now weakening and that a recession may be on the horizon. A recent survey found nearly three in four economists expect one by 2021, reflecting “growing skepticism among economists and investors that the U.S. economy will be able to withstand a protracted trade war with China without serious harm amid a weakening global outlook.”

Trump is reportedly worried about the impact that might have on his reelection campaign, and rightfully so, as sitting presidents who face recessions as Election Day approaches typically lose. His response — along with talking up the economy while lashing out at the response of his handpicked Federal Reserve chairman — has been to push the paranoid conspiracy theory that the press is deliberately trying to tank the economy to stop his re-election. This plays into Trump’s years-long campaign to delegitimize the press as the “enemy of the people.”

View the complete August 26 article by Matt Gertz from Media Matters on the National Memo website here.

The month a shadow fell on Trump’s economy

Washington Post logoFaced with internal warnings about a slowdown, President Trump pursued chaotic, contradictory responses.

Top White House advisers notified President Trump earlier this month that some internal forecasts showed that the economy could slow markedly over the next year, stopping short of a recession but complicating his path to reelection in 2020.

The private forecast, one of several delivered to Trump and described by three people familiar with the briefing, contrasts sharply with the triumphant rhetoric the president and his surrogates have repeatedly used to describe the economy.

Even as his aides warn of a business climate at risk of faltering, the president has been portraying the economy to the public as “phenomenal” and “incredible.” He has told aides that he thinks he can convince Americans that the economy is vibrant and unrattled through a public messaging campaign. But the internal and external warnings that the economy could slip have contributed to a muddled and often contradictory message.

View the complete August 22 article by Damian Paletta, Robert Costa, Josh Dawsey and Philip Rucker on The Washington Post website here.

Fact-checking President Trump’s remarks on the economy

Washington Post logoIt’s been a while since we’ve done a roundup of President Trump’s claims. We usually handle the president’s various gaggle and media availabilities in our database of false and misleading claims. (12,019 and counting!) But, given the attention to the worsening economic news, we thought a roundup of claims made during his press availability with the Romanian president on Aug. 20 would be appropriate. Some of these statements are already in the database; some of them are new. We will keep it focused on the economy except for the last item.

The Federal Reserve “also did quantitative tightening, which was ridiculous. And so — and despite that — you know, if you look — I guess you could call it normalized, but if you look, our economy is doing fantastically, and if you take a look at the previous administration, they weren’t paying interest. They had no interest rates, they had loosening, not tightening, and frankly it’s a big difference.” Continue reading “Fact-checking President Trump’s remarks on the economy”

Stocks fall as bond market signals recession

The Hill logoStocks sank sharply Wednesday morning after the U.S. bond market signaled an impending recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite all dropped more than 1 percent as trading opened Wednesday, with shares of banks leading the losses.

The sell-off came shortly after the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below the yield on two-year bonds for the first time since 2007. When 10-year bonds trade cheaper than 2-year bonds, a recession tends to follow within 12 to 18 months.

The Dow dropped more than 700 points, a 2.7-percent decline, shortly after 1 p.m. The S&P had fallen 2.7 percent, while the Nasdaq had lost 3 percent in that time.

View the complete August 14 article by Sylvan Lane on The Hill website here.

Trump Owns the Economy Now, for Better or Worse

President Donald Trump, pictured here with (from left) John Barrasso, John Thune, Mike Pence, Roy Blunt and Mitch McConnell,. Credit: Alex Brandon, AP Photo

WASHINGTON — President Trump is getting exactly what he wants on the economy, but it may not last.

The Federal Reserve has abruptly stopped its march toward higher interest rates, as Mr. Trump demanded. The tax cuts he signed in late 2017 are in full swing. His attempt to rewrite the global rules of trade are underway, and he proclaims himself happy with the array of new tariffs he has imposed. His recent comments suggest he is unconcerned about slowdowns in China and Europe, which he considers economic rivals.

But while Mr. Trump points with pride to last year’s economic growth and promises even faster growth to come, there are signs that his most dependable talking point is eroding. On Thursday, the Commerce Department issued a downward revision of its estimates for growth in the fourth quarter, pushing one measure of the full year’s growth down as well.

Forecasters outside the White House, including officials at the Fed, expect growth to slow even more this year. Economic data suggests that slowdown is already underway in the first quarter. Manufacturing is losing some of its steam from last year’s rapid growth, and job creation is also moderating. Chief executives of some of the nation’s biggest companies see investment, hiring and sales growth all slowing this year. Three-quarters of business economists say they are more worried about growth undershooting their forecasts than overshooting it, and half have revised those forecasts downward for this year.

View the complete March 28 article by Jim Tankersley on The New York Times website here.

Slowing economy looms as 2020 challenge for GOP

There are growing signs that the economy will slow substantially over the next two years, posing a significant problem for President Trump and Republicans who highlighted economic growth heading into the 2018 midterm elections.

Goldman Sachs on Monday issued a report projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow to 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2019, respectively, sooner than anticipated and creating a major headwind for GOP candidates the following year.

The bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, wrote in a note to clients that “tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus” from the 2017 tax reform and spending packages will be “key drivers of the deceleration.”

View the complete November 20 article by Alexander Bolton on The Hill  website here.