These 4 states could decide control of Congress in 2022

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Watch Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona

ANALYSIS — More than 16 months before Election Day, new House district lines haven’t even been drawn, and yet the fight for Congress is likely to hinge on the outcomes in four critical states.

On a basic level, every state matters in the Senate, considering Republicans need to gain just a single seat to get to the majority. Each significant recruitment development (such as if GOP Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire) would instantly affect the handicapping of a race and the fight for control. But there are other states less dependent on a single candidate.

Every seat also matters in the House, where Republicans need a net gain of five seats for a majority — a paltry number in a body of 435 members and in the face of the midterm history, which favors the party out of the White House. And some states, such as Texas, are of particular importance to one of the chambers. But a handful of states are hosting competitive races that will affect control of both the House and the Senate. Continue reading.

Pence: Trump sees Florida, Minnesota, Arizona as keys to 270

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President Trump’s campaign is focused on winning in Florida and Arizona to create a path to 270 electoral votes and four more years in office, Vice President Pence told The Hill in an exclusive interview aboard Air Force Two.

Pence, in the midst of a cross-country trip aimed at bolstering Trump and the Senate GOP ahead of Election Day, said those two states and Minnesota, which hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1972, are all top Trump targets.

“Florida’s of great importance. Arizona’s of great importance. We’re going to make sure we continue to campaign in those states,” Pence told The Hill when asked about “must-win” states for Trump. Continue reading.

A Sun Belt time bomb threatens Trump’s reelection

Rising Covid-19 caseloads in Florida, Arizona and Texas raise fresh doubts about the president’s reelection prospects.

The explosion of Covid-19 cases in Sun Belt states is becoming another albatross for President Donald Trump’s reelection hopes — and creating a new opening for Joe Biden and Democrats in November.

Republican governors in Florida, Arizona and Texas followed Trump’s lead by quickly reopening their states while taking a lax approach to social distancing and mask-wearing. Now, each of them is seeing skyrocketing coronavirus caseloads and rising hospitalizations, and Republican leaders are in retreat.

It’s hard to overstate the gravity of the situation for Trump: Lose any one of the three states, and his reelection is all but doomed. Continue reading.

There’s a Reason Trump Is Fighting Hard for Arizona

New York Times logoJoe Biden’s path to the White House could be through fed-up suburbanites and young Latinos.

PHOENIX — At the start of 2020, optimistic Democrats already thought this might be the year when a presidential election turned Arizona blue again.

Many suburban moderates were fed up with President Trump; in 2018, they sent a Democrat to the Senate from their state for the first time in more than three decades. Young Latino voters — who now make up 24 percent of eligible voters in Arizona — were casting ballots at record rates, angered by the president’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. And the party was fielding a strong candidate for November’s Senate race.

Now, four months until Election Day, that optimism is hardening into sustained confidence. Continue reading.

Trump’s 2016 campaign brass warns he’s in trouble in 2020

Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie told the president he’s down in swing states, prompting campaign chiefs in Arizona and Florida to travel to D.C.

David Bossie and Corey Lewandowski, two key allies and former political advisers to Donald Trump, went to the White House last week to issue him a warning: The president was slipping badly in swing states, and he needed to do something to fix it.

Three days later, the Trump campaign’s political directors in Arizona and Florida — states the president won in 2016 but where surveys show him lagging — were summoned to the White House Roosevelt Room. The officials offered a detailed rundown of his organization in the battlegrounds and tried to reassure the president that he was on firm ground.

After his May 18 meeting with Bossie and Lewandowski, Trump called his top campaign lieutenants to vent his frustration about his political standing. Continue reading.

Why Trump, GOP are running into trouble in Arizona

The Hill logoPresident Trump and Republicans are running into trouble in Arizona, where polls show them trailing in both the presidential race and in a key Senate battle that could help determine the balance of power in the upper chamber.

Arizona has been a reliably Republican state in presidential and Senate contests and has only voted for a Democratic president once in the past 70 years, when former President Clinton won the state in 1996.

But things are changing. Continue reading.