Tag: 2020 election

Pro-Trump group hunts for ‘hidden’ supporters

The Hill logoThe largest outside group supporting President Trump’s reelection believes it’s identified some of the “hidden” supporters that could tip the balance of the 2020 election in favor of Republicans.

Pollsters hired by America First Policies (AFP) have spent the past two months interviewing hundreds of self-described independent voters at focus groups conducted in major cities across nine battleground states.

A source close to the group shared videos of the interviews with The Hill, which featured Trump voters from 2016 revealing that they would not discuss their support for the president with pollsters or acquaintances because they were afraid of backlash from the media and their friends or family.

View the complete November 14 article by Jonathan Easley on The Hill website here.

Is Trump Losing the Working Class?

Many of his core supporters remain loyal despite struggles in manufacturing and agriculture.

EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS losses are mounting in key swing states just a year out from President Donald Trump’s 2020 reelection bid. And the losses are being felt particularly acutely in the industrial and agricultural sectors – a critical part of the base that helped Trump win the White House in 2016.

But in several of these key swing states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump is not exactly hurting for support from his core constituency. Recent polls in all three states suggest Trump’s job approval – and opposition to House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry – remains strong among the demographic groups and in the geographic areas that supported him the most fervently in 2016.

Despite agricultural upheaval, industrial weakness and a monthslong manufacturing recession – which are being felt particularly acutely in some of 2016’s most pro-Trump counties – the president has yet to see much erosion in support from groups that overwhelmingly backed him three years ago.

View the complete November 8 article by Andrew Soergel on The U.S. News and World Report website here.

Poll: Majority expect Trump to win in 2020

The president’s reelection prospects appear to be a motivating factor for potential voter turnout.

With less than a year to go before the 2020 election, a majority of registered voters say they think it’s at least somewhat likely that President Donald Trump will secure a second term in the White House, a new poll has found, with more than two-fifths of voters saying the president will be top of mind when casting their vote next November.

According to a POLITICO/Morning Consult survey released on Wednesday, 56 percent of voters expect the president to be reelected next year, including 85 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of independents. By comparison, more than a third of Democrats (35 percent) say the same.

The poll found that voter enthusiasm for the election remains high, even one year out.

View the complete November 6 article by Caitlin Oprysko on the Politico website here.

The Memo: Trump’s battleground ratings sound warning for Democrats

The Hill logoNew battleground state polls sent tremors through Democratic circles Monday, underlining that President Trump has a fighting chance of reelection despite his mediocre national standing.

The polls, from The New York Times and Siena College, tested the three leading Democratic 2020 candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — against Trump in the six states that Trump carried by the narrowest margins in 2016.

Those states are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

View the complete November 5 article by Niall Stanage on The Hill website here.

One year until the most important election in American history

Trump’s path to a second term depends largely on the Democrats

ANALYSIS — While it feels as if we’ve all been watching the 2020 race for years, it’s still 12 months until voters decide whether or not to give President Donald Trump a second term.

Given the president’s performance during his first term and his opportunities to cement and then expand those changes in another four years, it’s not an exaggeration to say that the 2020 election is the most important one in our nation’s history. No wonder there is so much early attention on Trump’s reelection prospects.

Our friends at Moody’s Analytics have once again produced a presidential election model to tell us who is going to win the White House next year. Like virtually all nonpartisan professional handicappers (including myself), Moody’s predicted days before the 2016 election that Hillary Clinton would win comfortably.

View the complete November 5 article by Stuart Rothenberg on The Roll Call website here.

Amid troubles, Trump has huge cash advantage for 2020

But Democrats have already raised $700 million from small-dollar donors giving $200 or less

For all the drama surrounding President Donald Trump — an unfolding House impeachment probe, former aides in prison and his personal consigliere reportedly under federal investigation — there’s one worry he doesn’t face: money for his 2020 campaign.

The White House incumbent, who took the unprecedented step of opening his reelection coffers the same day he took the oath of office in 2017, recently reported holding more than $83 million for his next race. Trump has raised a total of $165 million so far. Plus, he’s helped haul in millions more for the Republican National Committee, which will help all GOP candidates get the vote out, while outside organizations allied with the president have amassed their own big bundles of political money.

Trump’s eye-popping trove of treasure will likely face unparalleled scrutiny, though, with allegations of foreign contributions and other possible campaign finance violations swirling around the president and his close confidants, past and present.

View the complete November 5 article by Kate Ackley on The Roll Call website here.

Trump faces challenging path one year out from election

The Hill logoNEWTON, Iowa — A year before voters head to the polls to pick America’s next president, the country stands bitterly divided over its own future, the leaders who will guide us there and even their fellow citizens.
The America that both President Trump and his Democratic rivals seek to lead is backed more strongly into its partisan corners than at any point in recent memory, less likely to give the benefit of the doubt to those on the other side of the aisle, less interested in compromise and even more suspicious of the other side’s motives.
There are two things Americans do agree on: The first is the extent of the division within the country. Three-quarters of voters recently told Pew Research Center pollsters that most Republicans and most Democrats do not even agree on the same set of basic facts from which to begin a debate.

View the complete November 4 article by Reid Wilson on The Hill website here.

U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips: Congress is working to protect against election meddling

But those bills are sitting on Sen. Mitch McConnell’s desk collecting dust.

Recently, I sat in a crowded committee room on Capitol Hill and asked the witness before me a simple question: “Congress has released a trove of political ads on Facebook bought by agents acting on behalf of foreign governments. Some of those ads were even paid for in Russian rubles, is that correct?”

The answer from Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s CEO, was, “Congressman, that is correct.”

While we deal in nuance frequently in public policy, on this there is no doubt: Our adversaries have found a way to interfere in our elections by discouraging, dividing, and disinforming the American electorate. A unanimous report from our nation’s intelligence community, the findings of Independent Special Counsel Robert Mueller, a bipartisan Senate Intelligence panel, and now the testimony of the CEO of one of the world’s most influential communication platforms have made that abundantly clear.

View the complete November 4 commentary by Rep. Phillips on The Star Tribune website here.

New poll finds Trump’s base is slipping — a sign that there’s still hope for humanity

I’ve been waiting almost three years to see some significant slippage in the president’s approval numbers among Republicans, and I’ve been consistently disappointed. This isn’t political disappointment. It’s more about maintaining some small amount of faith that humanity can survive through the end of my son’s natural lifetime without a class of scientists culling the herd and moving out to colonize space.

I need some sign that the mass of humanity has a future, and Republicans who respond to surveys just don’t afford that kind of confidence. But I got a glimmer of hope with my morning coffee on Friday morning. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll (see full results here) provided what I’ve been looking for:

Trump is the first president since the early days of modern polling more than 70 years ago never to have achieved majority approval in office, and his average rating is 21 points below the average for his predecessors dating to Harry Truman at this point in their presidencies. Closest to Trump was Jimmy Carter, at 48 percent average approval.

View the complete November 1 article by Martin Longman from the Washington Monthly on the AlterNet website here.