Tag: 2020 census

Republicans eye new House majority through redistricting

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Republican state legislators see this year’s decennial redistricting process as a prime opportunity to gain House seats in next year’s midterms — with some believing those gains alone can help the GOP take back the majority.

Legislators are preparing for the most public redistricting process in American history. Both Democrats and Republicans stand ready to accuse each other of radical gerrymandering, while advances in technology give each side the chance to draw ideal districts that are both pleasing to the eye and politically favorable.

Republicans start with an advantage. Continue reading.

Don’t assume new Electoral College map will help Republicans

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As always, the political uncertainty principle applies

ANALYSIS — The 2020 census and its ensuing reapportionment of Electoral College votes and House seats is doing what it has done for decades: scramble politics. 

At first glance, the shifts look to benefit Republicans more than Democrats, with Rust Belt and Democratic states losing Electoral College votes and House seats to Sun Belt and Republican states. 

Whether that happens at the House level takes time to sort out. States have to draw new district lines, and until they do, it’s tough to tell which party benefits more. Continue reading.

‘The Legislature has proved … they’re not capable of getting the job done’: How redistricting is likely to happen in Minnesota

A Q&A with Peter Wattson, a redistricting expert and lead plaintiff in a lawsuit against the state, about the state’s history of redistricting — and what he expects to happen between now and next February, when state law requires Minnesota to have a new political map.

Last week’s release of state-by-state population numbers by the U.S. Census was the official, if belated, kickoff of redistricting season. While Minnesota was able to hold onto all eight of its current seats in Congress, the state won’t be able to begin rebalancing the populations of those districts — or state legislative districts — until late summer, when more detailed data is released.

These delays will make it more difficult for the state Legislature to redraw its political maps by a February 2022 deadline, even if the court, and not the Legislature, has long been the decider in Minnesota. A lawsuit filed in February began the state down that path, arguing that current lines are unconstitutional because of their unequal populations and asking the court to begin the process of drawing new ones.

Peter Wattson is the lead plaintiff in that suit. No stranger to redistricting law and politics, Wattson was a state Senate staff member assigned to the redistricting process and served as counsel in 2011 to then-Gov. Mark Dayton during his redistricting battles. Now retired, Wattson remains involved in redistricting law. MinnPost talked to Wattson about the current lawsuit, the state’s history of redistricting and what he expects to happen between now and next February, when state law requires Minnesota to have a new political map. Continue reading.

The census results just demolished one of the biggest lies that defined Trump’s presidency

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Former President Donald Trump was infamous for his cruelty and hostility to immigrants, asylum seekers, and refugees from around the world. He slashed refugee admissions to their lowest levels in decades, and justified it with a simple message: “Our country is full.”

But according to Vox, a new trove of data from the Census Bureau lays this bare as a lie. Not only is America not “full,” its population growth is in catastrophic slowdown — and dependent on immigration to maintain its society and government in its current form.

“Economists broadly agree that population growth fuels economic growth in wealthy countries,” wrote Nicole Narea. “But the recently released census figures show the US population grew by just 7.4 percent, or 331.5 million people, between 2010 and 2020 — the lowest rate since the 1930s. Projections suggest that, unless current trends change, those numbers could continue to diminish dramatically over the next two to three decades, with the population growing by just 78 million by 2060.” Continue reading.

Census Data Shows (Again) Why We Need To Expand Congress

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The preliminary 2020 census count has been released, and as usual, it means that when it comes to congressional representation, some states will gain and some will lose. Illinois is one of seven states that will suffer a shrinkage of their House delegations. But the zero-sum nature of this game is not a necessary feature, and it’s not a good one.

The reason states are pitted against one another every 10 years is that the nation’s population has steadily grown but the House has not. It has been frozen at 435 seats since 1911, even though the number of people in America has more than tripled. Back then, the typical member represented 212,000 people. Today, it’s 761,000.

The current number has no basis in the Constitution. The framers meant for the House to grow over time, and it did — from 141 in 1803 to 293 in 1873 to 357 in 1893. The only constitutional limit is that there can be no more than one representative per 30,000 people. James Madison wrote confidently that “the number of representatives will be augmented from time to time in the manner provided by the Constitution.” Continue reading.

Census to announce Monday if Minnesota loses Congressional seat

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Losing one of eight House seats would trigger a complex realignment of the state’s congressional districts. 

The U.S. Census Bureau is set to release population counts on Monday that will determine whether Minnesota will keep all eight of its seats in Congress.

Minnesota, which has grown more slowly than many other states, has been on the edge of losing one of its seats in the U.S. House for decades. The last time Minnesota lost representation in Congress was after the 1960 population count.

The numbers will be released at a 2 p.m. news conference. Continue reading.

DFL Party Statement on Minnesota Keeping All 8 Congressional

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SAINT PAUL, MINNESOTA – Today, following the release of block-level census data, it was revealed that Minnesota will keep all 8 of our representatives in the United States House. DFL Party Chairman Ken Martin released the following statement in response:

“Today’s news is a testament to the people of Minnesota’s incredible commitment to civic engagement and democracy. As the state with both the highest census response rate in the nation at 75.1% and the highest voter turnout in the nation, Minnesotans should be proud of these results. We stepped up, fought hard, and retained a seat in Congress that most observers thought we would lose. I am thrilled that Minnesotans will retain their clout in Congress and say in the Electoral College.”

Speaker Hortman, Majority Leader Winkler issue statements about Census results, impact on redistricting

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SAINT PAUL, MINNESOTA — Today the U.S. Census Bureau released new data to determine each state’s number of congressional seats and Electoral College votes for the next decade. Minnesota’s number of congressional seats remains unchanged at eight. Data released today is not used to determine new boundaries for new legislative districts. 

“Minnesota has a long history of good government and strong civic engagement. Thanks to Minnesotans’ excellent response to the census, Minnesota has retained eight Congressional districts. This is an important achievement for all of us. Congressional district allocation from the Census Bureau is an early and important step in Minnesota’s redistricting process. Minnesotans deserve an open and transparent redistricting process that results in a fair map,” said Speaker Hortman. “House Redistricting Chair Mary Murphy is well-qualified to take on this important work. She has the trust of Minnesotans in both parties and has an unassailable reputation for fairness. Now we anxiously await additional population data from the Census Bureau that is essential for the House Redistricting Committee to draw new districts.”

“Minnesotans expect their Legislature to draw fair maps and involve the public in drawing those maps,” said Majority Leader Ryan Winkler. “The census data released today makes clear how important that work is, and we are committed to district maps that all Minnesotans can trust and have confidence in.”

Following Apportionment Announcement, Phillips Underscores Need for Unity, Advocacy, and Action to Ensure Fair Treatment for Our State

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Minnesota sends billions more to Washington each year than it receives in federal aid

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, Rep. Dean Phillips (MN-03) released the following statement after the U.S. Census Bureau announced that Minnesota will maintain eight congressional seats in the 2021 reapportionment process:

“Minnesota’s high Census participation rates and population growth over the past decade means we’ll be keeping our representation, and clout, in Congress,” said Rep. Phillips. “That’s outstanding news. Minnesotans contribute more than our fair share to Washington, and I’m renewing my mission to bring more support back to our communities. This issue affects all Minnesotans, and I invite people and representatives of all political perspectives to join me in redoubling our efforts to advocate for the federal investments we deserve – and need – in this Congress and beyond.” 

In addition to determining the number of congressional districts within each state, the U.S. Census also impacts the distribution of trillions of dollars in federal funding for programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Head Start. Reduced federal funding would have a particularly large impact on Minnesota, which currently pays $1.8 billion more to the federal government each year than it receives in support.

Why your state might lose or gain clout in Congress after the census is released

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Rhode Island is likely to draw the short straw in the once-a-decade reshuffling of U.S. House seats

Rhode Island, now the most overrepresented state in the U.S. House, is likely about to become the most underrepresented.

In the next two weeks, the government will release state populations from the 2020 Census, and estimates suggest Rhode Islanders will lose one of their two seats in the chamber.

This is congressional reapportionment, the once-a-decade reshuffling of the 435 House seats among the states to adjust for population changes. Some states will gain clout, while others will lose. Even after the changes, House members from some states will still represent a starkly different number of people than others. Continue reading.