Dear Neighbors,
The State Legislature convened in special session Friday at noon. The session was necessitated by the governor’s decision to extend the state of emergency related to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic; however, while we’re here we will also be taking up various other COVID-19 related bills providing additional financial support for small businesses and local governments, as well as unfinished business from the regular session, including the Local Jobs & Projects Bill (bonding bill.)
Following a spirited debate, the House voted to uphold the governor’s authority to maintain his COVID-19 emergency orders. It’s important to note that 54 of the nation’s 55 states and territories are operating under gubernatorial emergency pandemic orders right now, Wisconsin being the only exception.
Much of the debate was centered around data, how we interpret it, and what it predicts for the future. The Minnesota Department of Health maintains a Coronavirus “Situation Update” page on its website which is updated daily. You can subscribe to receive daily updates from MDH at this subscription link. What this data shows is that Minnesota’s case count and death rates have leveled off and are starting to decline.
Some are taking this decline in cases to mean that we’re out to the woods and no longer need to take any precautions. However, a look at the most recent national datashows that a number of states which “opened up” early, including Texas and Florida, are now seeing sharp upticks in new cases, even after seeing initial peaks followed by temporary declines. Overall, 23 states are now seeing a resurgence in cases. We are clearly not out of the woods.
The example of Sweden’s open approach comes up often. Recently, the Swedish public health authorities have now conceded that their approach was too loose – the rate of infections and deaths in Sweden is much higher than in neighboring Scandinavian countries.
There was also a great deal of discussion about the MDH “coronavirus model”. I participate in regular MDH briefings to discuss this model, and I can say that it is improving as the data sample improves over time. As the great statistician George Box once said, “All models are wrong – some are useful”. As someone who has been involved in statistical modeling for most of his career, the MDH model has been useful. There are literally dozens of competing COVID-19 models you can consider, but the MDH model is the only one that makes use of all of the relevant data that is uniquely available to researchers in Minnesota.
My take is that the Governor’s gradual “turn back the dial” approach has been the right approach. Our case count and rate of hospitalizations and ICU admissions have remained just below our available capacity, ensuring that all those who need hospital care will be able to receive it (which has been our goal, all along). We do need to do a better job as a state at keeping our nursing home residents safe from this disease.
At this point, most of the economy has been opened in some form, subject to appropriate social distancing requirements. The exceptions are venues such as sporting events, concerts and conventions which would bring large numbers of people together into close quarters for an extended period of time, which have potential to become super spreader events. The social distancing requirements for venues like restaurants and places of worship may seem burdensome, but they are necessary. These venues are also characterized by assemblages of people sitting together in potentially close quarters for extended periods of time. This is the essential difference between these venues and stores, for example, where people come in, circulate and then leave after concluding their purchases. I got my haircut on Wednesday (for the first time in three months) and was impressed by the precautions being taken at my local Great Clips.
I have been discouraged to observe how many people seem to believe that, once an industry or profession has been opened, this means it is no longer necessary to observe basic social distancing necessities, like wearing a mask or standing 6 ft apart. Please continue to follow these practices to ensure we don’t have to close our economy once more.
Since I’m already receiving questions about this, I’ll note that MDH does expect a spike in new cases approximately three weeks after the end of the recent demonstrations and memorial services related to George Floyd’s murder. The governor has stated that he will submit to another COVID-19 test 5 days after attending the emotional memorial service for Mr. Floyd, where social distancing was not observed.
Sincerely,
Steve Elkins
Representative, District 49B
Minnesota House of Representatives
515 State Office Building
100 Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd.
St. Paul, MN 55155
(651) 296-7803