Red states may be facing a perfect storm of illness and death from COVID-19

Rural, conservative-leaning states have so far been spared widespread outbreaks of COVID-19. But experts say that they’re simply behind the curve of denser, more urban states like New York and Florida. The New York Times reported this week that “many communities that watched the pandemic unfold in faraway places are now experiencing the crisis firsthand. More than two-thirds of rural counties have confirmed at least one case.” Forty-two states now have over 1,000 confirmed cases of the disease, and many red states are among those conducting the fewest tests.

We know red states are vulnerable to rapidly spreading outbreaks in large part because of political polarization. Polls consistently find that Republicans–especially those who watch Fox News regularly–are more likely than Democrats to believe that COVID-19 is similar to the seasonal flu, and that the media and Democrats are hyping the seriousness of the pandemic to harm Donald Trump’s prospects in November. While most of them have so far practiced social distancing and taking other measures to avoid infection despite those beliefs, this week’s spate of fake grassroots protests against various governors’ shelter-in-place orders highlights the problem.

But there’s another reason to believe that red states are likely to be hit hard as the virus spreads: Many of them are leading the country in risk factors for severe illness and death from COVID-19. Continue reading.