Ignoring the Will of the People

The following article by Susan Milligan, Senior Writer, was posted on the U.S. News and World Report website December 2, 2017:

Credit: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

The $1.5 trillion tax bill, hailed with glee and relief by Republicans eager to appease donors and desperate for the year’s first major legislative win, is the most unpopular major piece of legislation to pass in decades.

That may sound remarkable, but it’s not the only case where public opinion – exhaustively collected, analyzed and reported by pollsters, interest groups and political parties – appears to have had little impact on a matter of public interest. President Barack Obama’s Deferred Access for Childhood Arrivals program to allow certain young immigrants to stay in the country is also overwhelmingly approved of by the electorate. But Congress failed to codify that program as it prepared to wind up for the year. Background checks for gun buyers, too, enjoys widespread public approval, polls consistently show – but that idea, too, never manages to get enough votes for passage. Continue reading “Ignoring the Will of the People”

‘We’re losing the war for truth’: Franken denounces Trump, GOP in final floor speech

The following article by Elise Viebeck was posted on the Washington Post website December 21, 2017:

Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) spoke on the Senate floor on Dec. 7 and announced his resignation. Watch his full remarks. (U. S. Senate)

Sen. Al Franken bade farewell to Capitol Hill on Thursday with a lengthy broadside against the policies of the Trump administration and a call for politicians to commit themselves to “honesty in public discourse.”

The speech put to rest questions about whether Franken (D-Minn.) would follow through on his promise to resign over more than a half-dozen allegations that he had touched women inappropriately. Continue reading “‘We’re losing the war for truth’: Franken denounces Trump, GOP in final floor speech”

Tax Cuts Buoy Republicans, but They’re Swimming Against an Undertow

The following article by Jonathan Martin was posted on the New York Times website December 21, 2017:

President Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, the House speaker Paul Ryan and the Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell at the White House yesterday. Credit Al Drago for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — The sweeping tax overhaul approved by Congress this week hands Republicans a long-sought achievement they believe will bolster their defenses in next year’s midterm campaign, but party officials concede the measure may only mitigate their losses in what is shaping up to be a punishing election year.

While the tax legislation is broadly unpopular as it reaches President Trump’s desk, the bill offers Republicans the sort of signature accomplishment they have been lacking to galvanize their demoralized donors and many of their voters. Continue reading “Tax Cuts Buoy Republicans, but They’re Swimming Against an Undertow”

The GOP is Anxious to Be Productive: 4 Takeaways From the 2018 Congressional Calendar

The following article by David Hawkings was posted on the Roll Call website December 20, 2017:

Roll Call Decoder with David Hawkings: wonky explainers from a Capitol Hill expert

Senior editor David Hawkings takes a look at the 2018 congressional calendar for a sneak peek at what to expect from the House and Senate come the new year.

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Trump notches first big legislative win with tax cut bill — but it’s far from his populist promises

The following article by Noah Bierman and Brian Bennett was posted on the Los Angeles Times website December 20, 2017:

President Donald Trump discusses Congress’ final approval of the tax bill. (Carolyn Kaster / Associated Press)

After 11 months in office, President Trump on Wednesday got to celebrate one of the things he’s coveted most — a major legislative achievement — and on his party’s signature issue, tax cuts.

For a president who loves to tally wins and loathes losses, Congress’ final approval of the tax bill hours earlier was an essential capstone to a year in which Trump rolled back scores of regulations, sharply limited a refugee program, seated a conservative Supreme Court justice and opened vast new areas for oil exploration. Continue reading “Trump notches first big legislative win with tax cut bill — but it’s far from his populist promises”

Top Democrat warns Trump not to fire Mueller or interfere with his investigation

The following article by Chris Megerian was posted on the Los Angeles Times website December 20, 2017:

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, one of the top Democrats involved in the congressional inquiries into Russian interference in last year’s election, said Wednesday that any attempt by President Trump to interfere with the separate criminal investigation would be a “gross abuse of power.”

Warner, who is vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, delivered his warning from the Senate floor as Republicans escalate their criticism of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III and his team of prosecutors and FBI agents. Continue reading “Top Democrat warns Trump not to fire Mueller or interfere with his investigation”

All signs point to a 2018 Democratic wave

The following by Will Drabold is from the Vox.com “Navigating Trump’s America” newsletter:

Good morning from Mic’s Will Drabold. Here is what’s happening today:

  • Why 2018 will be the year of the Democratic Party.
  • Trump will wait until early January to sign the tax bill.
  • A top Senate Democrat called on his colleagues to defend Robert Mueller.
  • Opioids are now killing more people annually than breast cancer.
  • Trump’s agenda today: Nothing public scheduled.

Today’s question: Do you think Democrats will win big in 2018? Please reply to this email with your thoughts.

Today’s dispatch: A wave. Scroll for today’s news.

Thursday’s Dispatch: All signs point to a 2018 Democratic wave

There are still more than 10 months until the midterm elections. With that caveat: Democrats are positioned to make gains in the House, defend several competitive Senate seats and win state level races nationwide.

When Republicans celebrated passage of their tax plan on Wednesday, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said, “This has been an extraordinary year of accomplishment for the Trump administration.” The tax plan capped of a year of championing deregulation, attacking the Affordable Care Act, appointing conservative judges, restricting immigration to the U.S. and taking a harder line with global partners.

That legacy has earned Trump and Republicans historically low polling numbers heading into 2018.

In the first midterm election for all but two presidents going back to 1946, the president’s party has lost U.S. House seats. Up until President Barack Obama, presidents with an approval rating above 50% at the time of the election lost an average of 14 House seats. Presidents with an approval rating below 50% lost an average of 36 House seats.

Obama’s approval rating was around 43% in 2010 when Republicans gained 63 House seats, the largest change in a midterm election since 1938. And Republicans won 721 state legislative seats in the 2010 election cycle.

Compare the 2010 wave to the polling we see today. Six surveys from this month show voters prefer a Democrat over Republican congress by double digits. In a new CNN poll, 56% of voters say they favor a Democrat in their district to 38% who favor a Republican. That 18-point gap is the largest CNN has seen in 20 years.

The latest polling puts Trump’s approval rating around 37%, according to FiveThirtyEight. It has sat under 40% since May. Both Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report, which have a strong history of accurately predicting congressional elections, show Democrats have the potential to gain at least 20 seats.

A poll released Thursday found backing from Trump, and congressional leaders made voters, on net, less likely to vote for Republican candidates — another poor omen for 2018.

2017 has brought other positive signs for Democrats. Out of 17 special legislative elections where a seat flipped party control, Democrats won 14 of those races. That included victories in districts from Florida to Oklahoma, two states where Trump won decisively.

Exit polling from the Alabama special Senate election found voters evenly approved and disapprove of Trump — in a state he won by nearly 30 points in 2016.

Matched with a congressional approval rating at a dismal 15% average — lower than where it was when Democrats lost the House in 2010 — Republicans have to prepare for an ugly 2018.

But the GOP has built in some protections to their majority since 2010. An Associated Press analysis found gerrymandering has given Republicans 22 more House seats than they should hold. In 2016, Republican congressional candidates won 1% more votes than Democrats — but hold 10% more House seats.

Democrats will need a surge of more than 1% nationwide to overcome that GOP advantage. And the wide Republican lead, along with the fact Democrats must defend incumbent senators in 10 states Trump won, means there is no guarantee a wave means they will take back the House, Senate or state legislatures.

But less than a year out from the elections, Republicans are touting a tax plan that draws support from only a quarter of Americans as their key accomplishment.

Thursday in Trump’s America: 

Tax reform: Trump will wait until early January to sign the Republican tax plan in order to avoid a vote on stopping automatic cuts to Medicare and Social Security this week. By signing the bill in 2018, Trump will give Congress longer to address those automatic cuts — loathed by senators but demanded by some House conservatives.

Large companies said they will give thousands of employees bonuses and raise minimum wages after the passage of the GOP tax plan. Countering that pro-tax reform narrative, Democrats said companies have promised more than $87 billion in stock buybacks to enrich investors since the Senate first passed the tax bill.

Sen. Susan Collins, a moderate Republican, faces blowback in Maine for her “yes” vote on tax reform. We explored how that vote is being received in her state. Also, Collins said Wednesday that health care fixes she demanded in exchange for her vote on tax reform would not be addressed this year.

Shutdown watch: House Republican leaders hope to pass a bill Thursday that will keep the government open until mid-January, fund the Children’s Health Insurance Program through March and send $81 billion in disaster relief to states and territories.

Conservatives are mad that spending won’t be cut. Defense supporters are mad the military is not being funded all year. House Democrats won’t vote for the plan because it doesn’t include their priorities. Senate Democrats may balk at the plan, but at least eight are expected to support it to keep the government open.

None of that means there will be a shutdown. But don’t be surprised if things fall apart.

Opioids: American life expectancy has dropped two years in a row, driven by the opioid crisis; 66% of the 63,000 drug overdose deaths in 2016 involved opioids — more than the number of people who die from breast cancer annually.

Russia investigation: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) urged senators to protect Robert Mueller, saying in a speech on the Senate floor that he fears President Donald Trump is preparing to fire the special counsel.

Sexual misconduct: A total of 59% of Americans believe Trump should resign over sexual misconduct allegations. Do you? Reply to this email with your thoughts.

Race relations: Republicans and Democrats alike believe race relations in America have worsened under Trump.

Virginia: A day after believing they split control of the Virginia House of Delegates, an election was ruled a tie between a Democrat and Republican. That means the election — and control of Virginia’s lower chamber — will be decided by drawing names out of a hat. Yes, really.

Secret dossier work: Several House Republicans have been quietly meeting, Politico reported, to build a case that FBI and Department of Justice officials improperly used a dossier with unverified claims about Trump and Russia in 2016.

DACA deal? It won’t happen this week — but the Senate will pursue a bipartisan vote in January to permanently protect Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program recipients, undocumented immigrants who were thrown into limbo when Trump announced in September he would end the program by March.

House Democrats and progressives worry key Democrats in the Senate will not act to protect DACA recipients this year.

Clinton in 2018? Some Democrats want to see her on the campaign trail. Others, not so much. Should Clinton campaign in 2018? Reply to this email with your thoughts.

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Republican senators show little urgency to pass law protecting Mueller

The following article by Karoun Demirjian was posted on the Washington Post website December 20, 2017:

Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark R. Warner (D-Va.) on Dec. 20 warned President Trump against firing special counsel Robert S. Mueller III. (U.S. Senate)

Republican senators who worked swiftly last summer to help write legislation protecting special counsel Robert S. Mueller III now are showing little urgency to get those measures passed.

The legislation, which would allow a panel of federal judges to review orders to fire the special counsel, was intended to prevent President Trump from pushing out Mueller before he completes his investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Continue reading “Republican senators show little urgency to pass law protecting Mueller”

Kids’ health insurance hangs in balance, and parents wonder what’s wrong with Congress

The following article by Robert Samuels was posted on the Washington Post website December 21, 2017:

Ashlee and Levi Smith play with their sons Liam, 3, and Aiden, 3 months, on Sunday in Salem, Utah. Ashlee, 26, and her husband float on and off the Children’s Health Insurance Program for their children. Ashlee volunteers with chronically ill children and says she sees the need for the program every day. (Sammy Jo Hester for The Washington Post)

 The lingering uncertainty in Congress over the fate of the Children’s Health Insurance Program has left Ashlee and Levi Smith torn between optimism and anxiety.

As the parents of two young children who have relied on the government-backed health-care plan, the Smiths are unsure whether they should stretch their finances to put their boys, 3 and 3 months, on a private plan — or have faith that a polarized Congress will work it out.

“$1,200 for the four of us,” Ashlee Smith, 26, said, estimating the plan’s monthly cost from their two-bedroom townhouse outside Salt Lake City, where she crafts necklaces as part of the family business. “We can’t pay that and save for a mortgage, or save anything at all.”

Congress appears unlikely this week to reauthorize the Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, which has become a crucial element in broader negotiations over how to fund the government. If no decision comes by Friday, then lawmakers are likely to take up the issue in early January — but with each delay, the pressure grows on families to find their own solutions. Continue reading “Kids’ health insurance hangs in balance, and parents wonder what’s wrong with Congress”

How tax cuts for the wealthy became Republican orthodoxy

The following article by Vanessa Williamson was posted on the Washington Post website December 21, 2017:

Congressional Republicans on Dec. 20 passed a massive tax overhaul, sending the bill to President Trump for him to sign it into law. (Jenny Starrs, Bastien Inzaurralde/The Washington Post)

The Republican Congress has passed a tax plan in which more than four-fifths of the long-term tax cuts are steered to the extremely wealthy, and are offset by future tax increases for a significant fraction of the party’s own voting base. Republicans plan substantial cuts to government services that those voters use and like.

This kind of “reverse Robin Hood” upward distribution has become the unifying goal of the Republican Party. The current GOP’s tax plan is the latest iteration of a decades-long rightward trajectory. Continue reading “How tax cuts for the wealthy became Republican orthodoxy”