The forecast is laid out in an internal unclassified document, “U.S.Government COVID-19 Response Plan,” which was seen by the New York Times. Marked “for official use only/not for public distribution or release,” the document is dated March 13—the same day President Donald Trump finally declared a national emergency and rejected any responsibility for the lag in testing for the novel coronavirus, which has stymied efforts to track and appropriately respond to COVID-19’s national spread.
As the Times reported Wednesday, the document includes in its assumptions that:
- Universal susceptibility and exposure will significantly degrade the timelines and efficiency of response efforts.
- “A pandemic will last 18 months or longer and could include multiple waves of illness.”
- “The spread and severity of COVID-19 will be difficult to forecast and characterize.”
- “Increasing COVID-19 suspected or confirmed cases in the U.S. will result in increased hospitalizations among at-risk individuals, straining the healthcare system.”
- “Supply chain and transportation impacts due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will likely result in significant shortages for government, private sector, and individual U. S. consumers.”