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In the Know: August 20, 2018

32 days until General Election early voting opens, Sept. 21
78 days until Election Day

2018 Election
Labor unites behind Walz for governor, Workday Minnesota
Trump predicts a ‘Red Wave,’ but special elections show Democrats poised for big gains, MPR
Putting Minnesota’s primary voting into perspective, MinnPost
Minnesota DFL looks to unite after fracturing, distractions in primary, Gray News
Minnesota’s 1st District will be watched closely, nationally, Winona Daily News
Women win primaries in record numbers, look to November, Star Tribune
Minnesota joins pink wave of female candidates, Star TribuneWe’re not 2006 anymore, candidates and pundits, Star Tribune
Ellison secures DFL endorsement for attorney general, MPR
DFL issues statement on Ellison receiving endorsement for AG, KSTP
Governor hopefuls hold first debate in Nisswa, MPR
The man that  Tim forgot: How Jeff Johnson’s win changes the 2018 race, MinnPost
House GOP hopes to turn Range districts red in November, Mesabi Daily News
In Minnesota’s governor’s race, a regional reversal, Star Tribune
SEIU State Council endorses Tim Walz for governor and Peggy Flanagan for lt. governor, Workday Minnesota
Erik Paulsen wants your vote, but refuses to debate for it, City Pages
Here’s how Tim Walz beat Erin Murphy and Lori Swanson, and Jeff Johnson beat Pawlenty, Pioneer Press
Tim Walz: I’m humbled to be the Democratic candidate for governor, Star Tribune
Native American woman making strides this year, MPR

Secretary of State Steve Simon said that there were few glitches during Tuesday’s primary besides one rural precinct worker who forgot the key to the building to open it up at 7 a.m. Tuesday, delaying the opening of that polling place. A “handful” of polling places also ran out of ballots due to the high voter turnout – the highest turnout the state has had for a primary since 1994. The record for highest primary voter turnout: 1966, when nearly 40 percent of voters showed up at the polls. Minnesota’s voter turnout at primaries has slipped over the last few years to its lowest level – 7.4 percent – in 2016. Star Tribune




Carter, Jimmy

The modest retirement of Jimmy Cater, Mankato Free Press

Trump
Trump blames DC, as military parade plan unravel over cost, Star Tribune
Steve Bannon says GOP must rally behind Trump to survive, Star Tribune


Trump’s “Red Wave” could sink the GOP – Axios
The president’s contempt for mainstream polling and the media may come back to haunt him in November. Several top Republican operatives working on the midterm elections told me Trump’s fanciful “red wave” predictions could depress Republican turnout and, ironically, serve to make any blue wave even bigger.

One of those strategists told me he’s detecting something interesting — and concerning — from focus groups of Trump voters.

  • “You have Trump-MAGA loyalists, and their friends on Fox, who have reached a point of not believing polls and media people telling them things are going wrong, that I believe is actually causing the Republicans problems,” the strategist told me, granted anonymity in order to be candid.
  • “We’ve seen it in focus groups, with Republican base voters, where you’ll come up with a hypothetical that the Democrats win, and people are like, ‘That’s not going to happen, that’s stupid.’ … They’re like, ‘Oh, to hell with this crap, we were told Trump wasn’t going to win. It’s bullshit.'”
  • “I would rather Sean Hannity get on TV every night and go, ‘Oh my God, Nancy Pelosi could be Speaker and they’re going to impeach Trump. You better get out to vote.'”

Between the lines: Questionable outlier polls like Rasmussen that favor the president have lulled and reassured Trump’s base. The president tweets out the polls, his media mouthpieces echo them, and his voters feel pacified — and, several top strategists I’ve interviewed fear, less motivated to show up in November.

  • Trump isn’t helping. The president is flatly denying what most polls indicate — saying he sees not a blue wave in November, but a giant “red wave.”
  • Republican strategists want the base to panic so they’ll show up to vote. But instead, Trump is breeding complacency.

Another of the country’s top House operatives told me:

  • “It’s worrisome. The President’s tweeting ‘red wave,’ and they watch Fox News,” the source said. “These [Trump voters] will say, ‘The same Fake News, Deep State people told me Hillary was going to win and Hillary lost. We’ve won all these elections.'”

A third said: “They watch Hannity… and hear that a red wave is coming to save the House. They really believe it’s going to be 2016 all over again.”

The bottom line: Trump is virtually alone among Republican elected officials in predicting a red wave, but his megaphone is the party’s loudest. So many strategists wish he’d be more realistic with his voters — many of whom loathe Congress and are already reluctant to vote in an election where Trump isn’t on the ticket.

  • The fact that Republicans have won eight out of nine special elections so far this cycle — a record Trump touts as evidence they’ll sweep to victory in November — obscures the fact that Democrats have made these races way closer than they should’ve been.
  • In these races, Republicans have deployed their top surrogates, including the president, and they’ve spent piles of money. They don’t have nearly enough resources to replicate this formula across the country in November.

But, but, but: If the Trump base shows up in November, Republicans have a chance at holding the House. Trump has an unprecedented hold over his party’s base, so if he changes tack it’s possible his voters will, too — and quickly.

Union
DFL campaign workers unionize, Union Advocate

Upcoming DFL Events

  • August 20, 6:00 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 20, 9:00 AM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 20, 1:30 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 20, 6:00 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 20, 6:30 PM — CD3 Music for Change Fundraiser, Auditorium, Maple Grove Senior High School, 9800 Fernbrook Ln N, Maple Grove, MN 55369.  More information and tickets here.
  • August 20, 7:00 PM — Brooklyn Park DFL Meeting, Brooklyn Park Public Library, 6500 W Broadway Ave, Brooklyn Park, MN
  • August 21, 9:00 AM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 21, 11:00 AM — TwinWest Chamber of Commerce Paulsen-Phillips Debate, this is a paid event ($60 per person for non-chamber members). However, WCCO Radio will broadcast and livestream the event.
  • August 21, 1:30 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 21, 6:00 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 22, 9:00 AM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 22, 1:30 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 22, 6:00 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 22, 6:00 PM — Ethiopian Coffee Hour hosted at the DFL Field Office, 4407 E Lake St, Minneapolis, MN 55406
  • August 23, 9:00 AM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 23, 1:30 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 23, 6:00 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 24, 9:00 AM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 24, 1:30 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 24, 6:00 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 25, 9:00 AM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 25, 10:00 AM — CD3 Eden Prairie Campaign Office Staffing Help, 10165 Hennepin Town Rd, Unit 109, Eden Prairie, MN 55344
  • August 25, 1:30 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 25, 6:00 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 26, 9:00 AM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 26, 10:00 AM — CD3 Eden Prairie Campaign Office Staffing Help, 10165 Hennepin Town Rd, Unit 109, Eden Prairie, MN 55344
  • August 26, 1:30 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
  • August 26, 6:00 PM — CD3 Plymouth Campaign Office Staffing Help, 187 Cheshire Ln, Plymouth, MN 55441. For more information or to RSVP email mberman@dfl.org.
Categories: DFL In the Know
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