If the Trade War Starts to Damage the Economy, Here’s How You’ll Be Able to Tell

The following article by Neil Irwin was posted on the New York Times website July 24, 2018:

Early indicators include executive surveys and futures markets.

A flag near a field of soybeans in Tiskilwa, IL early this month. Credit: Daniel Acker, Reuters

There’s no question that some American companies are feeling the bite of the trade war that the Trump administration is waging against much of the world.

As others have reported, a Missouri nail factory is laying off peoplebecause of tariffs on imported steel; Harley-Davidson plans to move some production to Europe in response to retaliatory tariffs; soybean farmers face a loss of income resulting from new Chinese import taxes.

But it’s a mistake to assume that difficulties of individual companies and industries are the same as a force powerful enough to bend the overall trajectory of the United States economy.

View the complete article here.