The following article by Haeyoun Park and Margot Sanger-Katz was posted on the New York Times website July 11, 2017:
A family making more than $200,000 a year would gain $5,420 on average by 2026, while a family making less than $10,000 a year would lose $2,550 if the Senate Republican health care bill becomes law, according to a new analysis.
Average net change in federal tax and
health benefits in 2026 for a family earning:
The analysis, from the Urban Institute’s Health Policy Center and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, looked at the combined impact of changes proposed under the draft Republican plan, including repealing Obamacare taxes, cutting Medicaid funding and changing the system of government subsidies for people who buy their own insurance.
The groups did an earlier analysis of the health care bill that passed the House in May.
Taxes would decrease for families earning $50,000 or more a year in 2026, when the law’s provisions would be in full effect. Families with incomes above $1 million a year would pay about $50,000 less in taxes.
The cuts to Medicaid would hit the poorest families hard. Even though some would be able to take advantage of new subsidies to buy health insurance, the researchers found that, on average, their benefits would decline substantially. Those m
aking less than $30,000 a year would take three-quarters of the total losses.
More than 80 percent of the tax cuts would go to families with incomes above $200,000 a year, and more than 58 percent would go to those making more than $1 million a year.
The Republican plan eliminates taxes that Obamacare imposed mostly on the rich, including taxes on investment income and wages above $200,000. (The money from cuts to other Obamacare taxes, including ones on medical devices, prescription drugs and indoor tanning, would go to the population more broadly.)
Senate leaders have said their bill may be revised in the coming days, and have said a vote may take place next week.