A couple weeks ago, Trump hit 40% approval rating in FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate. I watched eagerly to see if he might fall below that threshold, which would have been a clear sign the bottom was absolutely dropping out from his campaign.
Unfortunately, Trump managed to bounce back a bit, but not by much. He’s currently sitting at 41.4% approval and has been bobbing around that 41% mark since early June. But not to worry, a look at the history of the worst political routs in modern U.S. history shows that presidents and major-party nominees pretty much get 40% of the votes no matter how dreadful their leadership or campaign.
Take President Herbert Hoover, for instance, running for reelection against Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 amid the Great Depression, with food lines and shanty towns across America. Hoover still won 39.7% that year to FDR’s 57.4%. Continue reading.