The number of cases and fatalities continue to change rapidly, so to get a better understanding of where they’re headed, we’ve been following a weekly survey of infectious-disease researchers from institutions around the U.S.
This week’s survey, conducted April 13 and 14, shows that the expert consensus is that reported deaths will increase to around 47,000 by May 1, although they think there could be as many as 82,000 by that time. The experts also think fatalities are most likely to peak in May, but they still see about a 1 in 3 chance that deaths won’t peak until June or later. They also expect that between eight and 11 states will report more than 1,000 deaths by May 1. Continue reading.