Introduction and summary
The upcoming U.S. presidential election will be the first since Russia’s extensive and systematic attack on the 2016 cycle. Unfortunately, the interference campaign did not end on November 8, 2016. Multiple law enforcement filings, intelligence warnings, private sector alarms, and watchdog group reports prove that Russia’s attacks continued throughout the 2018 midterm elections—and continue to this day.
Every indicator suggests that Russia will continue to be actively engaged in disrupting U.S. democratic processes throughout the 2020 election cycle. Compared with midterms, presidential elections are more tempting because the potential return on investment is much greater. Foreign policy tends to play a larger role in debates, as presidents have a much larger executive say in foreign policy decisions than domestic policy. And in 2020, President Donald Trump, a politician for whom the Russian government has a preference and on whose behalf the Kremlin is willing to intervene, will mostly likely be on the ticket again.
To further complicate the matter, the threat of foreign interference goes beyond Russia. Countries such as China, as well as Iran and other Gulf states, are advancing their foreign interference capabilities.1 And the lack of any substantive response to Russia’s interference in 2016 has sent the signal to these countries—in particular, to China—that there are no consequences for interfering with American elections.2 In fact, in an interview with ABC News, President Trump said he would accept information from a foreign state, creating a perverse incentive for foreign intelligence services to engage in such activity.3