Congress will have 12 working days to prevent a debt default and keep the government open.

The following article by Kelsey Snell filling in for James Hohmann with Breanne Deppisch and Joanie Greve was posted on the Washington Post website August 11, 2017:

THE BIG IDEA today is by Kelsey Snell. James will be back on Monday.

August is supposed to be a time when Washington recharges, relaxes and refreshes. But just beyond that happy hour cocktail or beach blanket is a looming fiscal battle over funding the government and raising the debt limit.

Exciting, right? When Congress returns in September the House will have just 12 legislative days to raise the federal borrowing limit to avoid default — and the same amount of time to approve a spending deal to avert a government shutdown. Those things alone would make for a hefty lift under even the best political circumstances. But the high-stakes deadlines comes as GOP lawmakers are still bruised and angry over the dramatic failure of their most recent push to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.

Some congressional Republicans openly admit there is a strong possibility the GOP will quickly abandon a broader spending bill in favor of a short-term funding measure to keep the government open, perhaps through the end of the year. One of the likely solutions would continue current spending levels through the middle of December to give lawmakers more time to negotiate a broader deal.

Such a decision would be a practical solution to the hard reality that Republicans are deeply split over spending priorities — and likely don’t have enough votes to pass any kind of major spending bill on their own.

Republican leaders know there are about a dozen conservatives who simply won’t vote for most spending bills. Those same 12 or more far-right members also don’t want to vote to increase the debt limit without corresponding spending cuts. That means Republicans will probably have to turn to Democrats to both raise the borrowing limit and keep the government funded.

Leaders expect that Democrats would be happy to extend current spending levels and increase the debt limit. The problem is with Republicans, for whom accepting another stopgap spending measure would be a dramatic reversal. GOP leaders have pledged to cut spending and restore order to the budget process.

Still, even some hard-line conservatives seemed resigned to the reality of a short-term spending bill, no matter how distasteful to them. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) told reporters before recess that September is going to be a difficult month and he doesn’t expect there will be enough time to complete the regular process of passing funding bills.

“All the fiscal issues and deadlines are going to make it extremely difficult to get everything done in a piece-by-piece basis,” Meadows said in July. “We’re almost anticipating a bigger bill with a whole bunch of things put together that would maybe bring a whole lot of Democrats on board and pass with less than a majority of the majority.”

Meadows wasn’t happy about that idea, but he also didn’t challenge the notion that conservatives may be fighting a lonely and losing battle over spending cuts next month. Approving a short-term bill could be the quickest solution for GOP leaders — but it carries with it both risks and rewards for Republicans still reeling from their failure on health care.

Here are three reasons Republicans might want to force the bigger spending fight:

1. They can delay the pain of a public debate over cutting funding for popular programs. Even deeply passionate fiscal hawks got queasy when President Trump proposed cutting funding for programs like arts education, student loans and Meals on Wheels.
2. They won’t have to grapple with the fight over Trump’s border wall. Some key Senate Republicans have openly rejected the idea of spending money on the wall without spending cuts to offset it. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), John McCain (Ariz) and Bob Corker (Tenn.) all told CNN back in February they weren’t on board with the wall plan.
3. They can focus on a tax overhaul. Republican leaders announced last month they plan to start hearings on a tax bill in September with the hope of holding a House vote in October and a Senate one in November. That timeline is ambitious, but GOP lawmakers see a tax code rewrite as an opportunity to eke out a sizable victory — even if it means that they have to settle for a simple tax cut rather than a sweeping overhaul like some had imagined.

A tax overhaul is a signature pledge for House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), and he is eager to move on to that project. So eager in fact that his Twitter feed has included near-daily reminders of his promise:

Here are three reasons a short-term spending measure might be a nightmare for the GOP:

1. Trump wants his border wall funded. The White House was willing to accept the last spending bill without wall funding based on the assumption that GOP leaders would provide it in the next round of spending bills. Politico reported earlier this week that the White House is already floating a plan to increase domestic spending in exchange for money to begin construction of a “double fence.”
2. North Korea is creating even more pressure for military spending. Most defense hawks hate short-term spending bills because it’s impossible for the military to plan and prepare. Earlier this year, McCain was among those who pledged not to support another stopgap bill, saying that doing so “destroys the ability of the military to defend this nation.”
3. Nothing’s going to change between now and December. Republicans will also still be wary of the wall. A bloc of House conservatives will still be unwilling to vote for any kind of spending bill, and barring an unforeseen surprise, the 52 Senate Republicans will still need at least eight Democrats to keep the government funded.

The upshot: We could all be getting another shutdown fight under the Capitol Christmas tree this year.

View the post here.