As in January, The Conversation has assembled a forecasting panel of 20 leading economists from 12 universities across six states. Among them are macroeconomists, economic modellers, former Treasury, IMF, OECD and Reserve Bank officials, a former government minister and a former member of the Reserve Bank board.
Whereas in January only three members of the 20-person panel expected the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates, and most expected an economic growth rate approaching 3% (which is the Treasury’s estimate of the best that can be achieved on a sustained basis), this time all but two expect the bank to cut again, and most expect a growth rate closer to 2% – one of the most anaemic since the financial crisis.